[00:09:58]
[00:12:38]
[00:17:15]
AND[00:17:15]
THEN JUST, HELLO TENSION'S.HE LEFT IT TOO LONG AND CREATED PROBLEM, BUT HE SAID, IN MOST CASES, A STRESS THAT BUILD A FULL, IF YOU WORK UNDER A LOT OF STRESS BECAUSE WE START RECORDING, PROBABLY I'M ROLANDO VELA.
UH, FIRST OF ALL, THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
UH, WE HAVE REPRESENTATION FROM SURROUNDING CITIES.
WE HAVE THE SCHOOL DISTRICT, WE HAVE A COUNTY, UH, WE HAVE TDO, WE HAVE IRRIGATION DISTRICTS, DRAINAGE DISTRICTS.
AND THE PURPOSE OF THIS MEETING IS FOR US TO TALK ABOUT WHAT WE'RE DOING, WHAT OUR ENTITIES ARE DOING.
UM, I WAS INTERVIEWED EARLIER AND I WAS LIKE, WELL, WHY ARE YOU DOING THIS? WELL, WE WANNA BE PROACTIVE.
WE'RE SIX MONTHS AWAY FROM HURRICANE SEASON LAST YEAR WE HAD A STORM PREPAREDNESS MEETING DURING HURRICANE SEASON.
SO WE CAME UP WITH THE IDEA, WELL, LET'S START TALKING NOW.
WHAT ARE WE ALL DOING? AND, AND LET ME TELL YOU WHERE IT'S A SCHOOL DISTRICT, THE COUNTY IRRIGATION, DISTRICT TEXTILE, WE ALL HAVE SOMETHING IN COMMON.
AND IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THIS, UH, AND THAT IS THAT WE LIVE IN AN AREA THAT'S FLAT.
WE ARE IN A DELTA, AND WE'RE NOT THE HILL COUNTRY.
AUSTIN, SAN MARCOS, NEW BRONCOS.
[00:20:01]
ONLY WAY TO MOVE STORM WATER, ANY OF THESE PEOPLE WILL TELL YOU, YOU GOTTA DIG OPEN DRAINS OR, AND YOU GOTTA BUILD DETENTION PONDS.JUST TO TELL YOU AT THE DRAIN DISTRICT NUMBER FIVE, WE'RE CURRENTLY WORKING WITH ABOUT $70 MILLION OF PROJECTS.
AND I WOULD TELL YOU 99% OF THOSE PROJECTS, WHITENING CHANNELS, BUILDING DETENTION PONDS.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE 123 ACRES OF DETENTION PONDS.
ONCE WE COMPLETE ALL THESE PROJECTS THAT WE'RE DOING WITH THE CITY OF HAREN AND WE'RE DOING WITH GRANTS AND IN-HOUSE, THAT TOTAL WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 350 ACRES.
AND WHY IS THAT IMPORTANT? WHY ARE DETENTION PONDS IMPORTANT? THE WHOLE OBJECTIVE IS TO MOVE STORM WATER AND WE CAN STORE IT TEMPORARILY IN A POND.
SO WHEN THE WATER STARTS TO RECEDE IN A CHANNEL, THAT WATER GOES INTO THE CHANNEL.
SO IT'S ABOUT MANAGING PEAK FLOWS.
AND WHAT WE'RE GONNA BE DISCUSSING ABOUT IS WHAT WE TALK ABOUT DAYS OR HOURS BEFORE AN EVENT.
WE'RE ALL TALKING AT ALL HOURS.
AND I FELT THAT IT WAS AN IMP VERY IMPORTANT FOR US TO KICK OFF OUR FIRST MEETING BY INVITING BARRY.
AND I APOLOGIZE FOR BOTHERING YOU FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS,
AND BEFORE I FORGET, I WANNA TELL YOU ON BEHALF OF THE DRAINAGE DISTRICT, WE HAVE A LITTLE GIFT FOR YOU.
AND SO WHEN YOU WEAR THE CAP, YOU CAN, YOU CAN BRAG ABOUT NUMBER FIVE,
AND AGAIN, I HAVE TO TELL YOU ONE OF THANKS, CITY OF HARINGTON FOR HOSTING THIS MEETING.
WE HAVE THE DRAIN DISTRICT ARE WORKING ON VARIOUS PROJECTS WITH HARLINGEN RIGHT NOW.
AND, AND WE ARE WORKING WITH OTHER COMMUNITIES AS WELL.
SO WE APPRECIATE THE SUPPORT WE HAVE FROM HARLINGEN.
WE APPRECIATE THE, THE PARTNERSHIP.
AND BEFORE I TURN IT OVER TO BARRY, I WANNA ACKNOWLEDGE ONE OF MY BOARD MEMBERS, JERRY STAFF HERE.
AND, AND IF I MAY, REAL QUICKLY IN INTEREST OF TIME, HAND IT OVER TO BARRY.
I WOULD LIKE FOR PEOPLE TO INTRODUCE THEMSELVES.
AND BY THE WAY, AS I TURN THE MIC OVER, UH, I WANNA TELL YOU THAT THE OUTLINE TODAY IS BASICALLY WE WANT TO DISCUSS WHAT PROJECTS WE'RE ALL WORKING ON.
IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE UNDERSTAND WHAT OUR, WHAT WE'RE ALL INVOLVED IN AND ANY COLLABORATIONS, SHARING OF INFORMATION.
AND SO THIS IS WHAT WE'RE GONNA BE TALKING ABOUT AND ALSO PREPARING FOR THE NEXT, WHAT CAN WE DO TO BETTER PREPARE AND HOPEFULLY IN THE END, SCHEDULE THE NEXT ONE.
AND SO THAT SAID, BEFORE I TURN OVER THE MIC TO BARRY, I'D LIKE TO HAVE OSCAR INTRODUCE HIMSELF AND TURN THE MIC OVER.
OSCAR GARCIA, ASSISTANT CITY MANAGER FOR THE CITY HALL ENGINE.
NDA, CAAS, ASSISTANT TMC, CAMERON COUNTY, TOM HUSING, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATOR, CAMERON COUNTY.
UHTO, I'M THE MAINTENANCE SUPERVISOR WITH, UH, HI, WE DEPARTMENT OUT OF THE SAN BENITO OFFICE.
I'M THE ASSISTANT AIR ENGINEER, UH, FOR TEXT AT THE SAN BETO AREA OFFICE.
JENNIFER BIRAN WITH TDOT, AMANDA CHER, AND TDOT.
ROBERT HERNANDEZ, CITY ENGINEER FOR HAREN.
MY NAME IS RUTH VINNO, ASSISTANT PUBLIC WORKS DIRECTOR FOR CITY OF HARINGTON, BRIANNA WOODMAN, SPECIAL PROJECTS DIRECTOR FOR CCC DD FIVE.
HELLO, VERONICA RAGGA, ASSISTANT GENERAL MANAGER, CAMERON COUNTY, DRAINAGE DISTRICT FIVE.
JERRY WADE, BOARD MEMBER CAM CAMERON COUNTY, DRAINAGE DISTRICT NUMBER FIVE.
NOW MARTINEZ WITH THE IRRIGATION DISTRICT, GM AM AFTERNOON.
FRANK IS JUNIOR CITY MANAGER OF CITY LAIA ALF, ROD, PUBLIC WORKS DIRECTOR LAIA, ERIC GOLDSMITH, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, RIO GRANDE VALLEY OFFICE, WARNING, COORDINATION, UROLOGIST.
AND WE HAVE SOME PEOPLE IN THE AUDIENCE IF YOU WANT TO INTRODUCE YOURSELVES.
UH, I KNOW WE HAVE SCHOOL DISTRICT COUNTY, DAN
[00:25:01]
MY NAME IS FRANK EZ.I'M A CITY COMMISSIONER, HARINGTON DISTRICT NUMBER FOUR.
I'M BEN ESCOBAR WITH CAMERON COUNTY, DRAINAGE DISTRICT NUMBER THREE.
WELL, LUIS VARGAS WITH CHIBE CONSULTING.
WE PROVIDE ON-CALL ENGINEERING SERVICES FOR CAMERON COUNTY, DRAINAGE DISTRICT NUMBER FIVE.
DAN
I'M DANNY CASTILE WITH THE HAREN SCHOOL DISTRICT.
I DUNNO WHO ELSE, ANYBODY IN FRONT YOU GUYS WANT TO INTRODUCE? UH, ANTHONY OU, ASSISTANT COUNTY ENGINEER CAMERON COUNTY, THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
UH, YOU WANT TO BRING THE MIC OVER? AND HERE.
HELLO RODRIGUEZ, CITY OF HAREN DIAZ CITY OF HARLINGEN.
HELLO,
HELLO, SCOTT ARNOLD, 360 DRONE MAPPING HERE AT HARLINGEN.
KRISTEN LUCKY, UH, CANDIDATE FOR TEXAS HOUSE DISTRICT 37.
SO BARRY IS ABOUT TO BARRY'S ABOUT TO TELL US WHAT HE SEES IN HIS RADAR.
I I I'M GONNA STAND UP IF Y'ALL DON'T MIND.
UM, THE OTHER MIC, IF THAT'S USABLE.
WE CAN HAVE SOME AUDIENCE PARTICIPATION.
UM, I DON'T KNOW WHAT MY TIMEFRAME IS.
I'VE GOT ABOUT 20 MINUTES OF PRESENTATION, BUT THIS COULD GO UP TO 30 OR 40 FOR SOME OPEN CONVERSATION BECAUSE IT IS A DRAINAGE DISTRICT MEETING.
BUT THERE'S A WHOLE BUNCH OF OTHER PEOPLE HERE.
UH, I SEE RON WHITLOCK IS HERE.
I SEE SOME OTHER MEDIA FOLKS ARE HERE AND WE, WE'VE TALKED A LOT.
UM, THERE'LL BE SOME INTERESTING SLIDES I'M GONNA PUT UP THAT MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT PROVOCATIVE, BUT THEY'RE IMPORTANT TO TALK ABOUT AS WE MOVE FORWARD IN DISCUSSION, WHICH IS GONNA BE MORE THAN JUST ABOUT THE FORECAST.
THAT'S ONLY PART OF THE ISSUE THAT WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH HERE IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
UM, AND YOU'RE A PRETTY, UH, LUCID AUDIENCE.
I THINK YOU'LL GET THE FIRST QUESTIONS RIGHT WHEN WE START OFF HERE.
SO THE FOUR BIGS, THINK ABOUT WHAT FOUR BIGS ARE AND WE'LL THEN GO OVER THAT, UH, SOON AFTER WE GET STARTED HERE.
SO BEFORE I MOVE FORWARD, UM, DISREGARD THAT PICTURE.
BY THE WAY, I JUST GAVE A TALK SIMILAR TO THIS THIS MORNING TO A GROUP OF FAITH-BASED LEADERS OVER IN WESLACO.
AND IT'S REALLY FUNNY IN MY JOB, I MEAN WE HAVE DAYS WHEN I'M IN THE OFFICE AND THERE'S NOT MUCH GOING ON.
LAST WEEK AFTER THE HOLIDAYS WAS PRETTY QUIET TODAY WE GOT FIVE MEETINGS TODAY AND I HAD SOME STAFFERS GO OUT TO THE CAMERON COUNTY, LEPC, UH, IN BROWNSVILLE.
WE ALSO HAD A HOSPITAL PREPAREDNESS COALITION FROM SEARAC MEETING TODAY.
AND UH, WE HAVE UH, SENATOR TED CRUZ'S OFFICE IS COMING INTO, UH, STAFFERS OR COMING INTO OUR OFFICE TO WATCH US RELEASE THE BALLOON.
SO, UH, ALL ON A WEDNESDAY
SO WITHOUT FURTHER ADO THE FOUR BIGS.
UM, ANYBODY WANT TO START GUESSING? AND I DON'T KNOW IF WE HAVE ANOTHER MIC OUT THERE THAT'S GOT THE BATTERY IN IT.
UM, YEAH, I WAS AFRAID TO USE IT 'CAUSE THE BATTERY MIGHT DIE.
BUT IF ANYBODY WANTS TO RAISE A HAND AND TALK ABOUT THIS.
SO THERE ARE FOUR BIG WEATHER AND CLIMATE SITUATIONS HERE THAT ARE PERSISTENT YEAR AFTER YEAR IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
AND REMEMBER I SAID WEATHER AND CLIMATE.
SO WE CAN LOOK AT BOTH OF THOSE THINGS.
I JUST TALKED TO THE PASTORS IN WESLACO AND THEY GOT THE ANSWER IN ABOUT 45 SECONDS, ALL OF THEM.
SO LET'S SEE IF Y'ALL CAN MATCH THAT.
SO ANYBODY WANNA RAISE A HAND AND GRAB THE MIC AND SAY WHAT THE NUMBER ONE BIG IS OR ONE OF THE FOUR BIGS IS NO, HURRICANES IS NOT A BIG HURRICANE.
WHAT ARE THOSE BIGS? OH, I GOT SOME HANDS HAND IN THE BACK.
SO KRISTEN, LUCKY FLOODING NUMBER ONE.
AND EVERYONE THINKS IT'S NUMBER ONE ANYWAY BECAUSE OF WHAT HAPPENED LAST MARCH, RIGHT? SO YES.
YOU'RE THINKING ABOUT THAT NOW TOO, RIGHT? I CONSIDER THAT THE THIRD BIG, BUT THESE CAN ALL MOVE AROUND THE, THE RANKINGS, RIGHT? LIKE THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS.
MIAMI COULD WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP OUT OF NUMBER 10, RIGHT? SO WE MOVE THESE RANKINGS AROUND.
SO YES, DROUGHT AND WHAT COMES WITH THAT? WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT.
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL AND WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL.
OKAY, TWO OF THE FOUR THO THAT'S ACTUALLY ONE OF THE HARDER ONES TO GET THE DROUGHT.
A LOT OF PEOPLE DON'T GET THAT.
SO THE OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE SPECTRUM.
MAYBE IT'S NUMBER ONE SOMETIMES.
AND WHAT IS THE OTHER ONE? OTHER ONE'S PRETTY OBVIOUS TOO.
[00:30:01]
I HEARD THE WORD WIND.UM, AGAIN, WE'LL BE DISCUSSING THIS AND AS WELL AS THE OUTLOOK AND A HURRICANE SEASON TEASER.
SO THEY ARE, THAT WAS LAST MARCH.
AND MACALLAN, WE ALL REMEMBER IT WAS EVEN WORSE RIGHT HERE WHERE WE'RE SITTING IN HARLINGEN AND I THINK RIO HONDO MAY HAVE HAD IT WORSE STILL THAN EVEN WE DID HERE IN HARLINGEN WINDSTORM.
WE'VE SEEN THESE PICTURES BEFORE AND WE'LL TALK A LOT ABOUT THAT TOO AS UH, HOW DO WE FIX THAT ISSUE? THAT'S A LON, UH, NORTH OF WESTLAKE OANA BACK IN 2015.
UM, ALL OR NOTHING, RIGHT? THEY SAY TEXAS IS A STATE OF PERPETUAL DROUGHT BROKEN BY THE OCCASIONAL DEVASTATING FLOOD MARCH, 2025.
AND THANKS TO SOME OF OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PARTNERS WHO WILL BE JOINING ME IN FORT WORTH AT THE UH, STATE CONFERENCE, HOPEFULLY APPROVED TO TALK ABOUT THAT.
AND THAT LAST ONE YOU CAN'T REALLY READ VERY WELL.
LET'S HEAR THE BIG SCREEN, BUT UH, THE RED MEANS HEAT
SO UH, YOU SEE SOME RED COLORS.
THOSE ARE ACTUALLY RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR THE SUMMER OF 2023 IN A PLACE THAT'S ALREADY HOT.
I LIKE TO USE BOB DYLAN'S QUOTE HERE.
IT DOESN'T TAKE A WEATHER MAN'S KNOW WHICH WAY THE WIND BLOWS AND CHANGE THE WORDS HERE TO SAY IT DOESN'T TAKE A HURRICANE TO KNOW WHICH WAY THE WATER FLOWS.
YOU KNOW, THE FIRST ANSWER I GOT FOR A BIG FROM THE AUDIENCE WAS A HURRICANE.
BUT A HURRICANE ITSELF ISN'T THE BIG, IT'S WHAT THE HURRICANE PRODUCES.
AND WHY IS THAT IMPORTANT? BECAUSE 500 MILLION IN PROPERTY AND AGRICULTURAL DAMAGE SINCE 2018, AT LEAST 500 MILLION HAS BEEN CAUSED BY FLOODING RAIN.
NOW SHOWN ON THE PICTURES THERE, YOU HAVE THE 2018 EVENT, WHICH MANY OF US REMEMBER, ESPECIALLY OVER IN WESLACO, BUT ALL THE WAY HERE IN HARLINGEN TOO.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THAT EVENT WERE GREATER THAN HURRICANE BAH, BY THE WAY, IN MANY LOCATIONS.
AND THEN IF YOU GO DOWN TO THE ONE BELOW IT, THAT WAS ALMOST EXACTLY A YEAR LATER AND ALMOST THE EXACT SAME LOCATION SOME OF THE WORST RAINFALL FELL ON, UH, JUNE 25TH, 2019.
UPPER RIGHT IS A HURRICANE RELATED EVENT.
THAT WAS HURRICANE HANNAH IN 2020.
UM, ALSO THIS WAS IN JULY, WHICH IS KIND OF AN INTERESTING MONTH FOR HURRICANES HERE.
AND THEN THE BOTTOM RIGHT IS WHAT HAPPENED LAST MARCH.
YOU CAN SEE THAT PURPLE AND DARK PURPLE SHADING RIGHT OVER WHERE WE'RE SITTING WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, HISTORIC RAINFALL, NOT ONLY FOR MARCH, BUT EVEN FOR AN ANNUAL EVENT.
SO THESE EVENTS WERE ONE IN 100 PLUS RETURN FREQUENCY EVENTS IN WESTERN CAMERON AND EASTERN IGO COUNTY.
NOW I'M GONNA GIVE YOU A, A, A EDUCATION TIP FOR YOU TO SAY WHEN YOU GO OUT AND TALK TO YOUR PUBLIC, DO NOT, DO NOT, DO NOT USE THE TERM 100 YEAR FLOOD PLEASE, BECAUSE WE'VE HAD FIVE OF 'EM SINCE 2018.
AND THAT GIVES THE PUBLIC A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY.
WELL, WE JUST HAD OUR A HUNDRED YEAR FLOOD, SO I DON'T NEED INSURANCE.
IT WON'T HAPPEN AGAIN UNTIL MY GRANDKIDS ARE MY AGE.
EVEN AS WE IMPROVE HOW WE MEASURE AND RATE AND RANK FLOOD EVENTS, 100 IS ONE IN 100 CHANCE OR 1% CHANCE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR THAT YOU COULD GET THE DEVASTATING FLOOD.
AND THEN DRAINAGE IMPROVEMENT PROJECTS, WE JUST HEARD ABOUT THAT TO START.
UM, SO, UH, WE'LL TALK MUCH MORE ABOUT THAT I'M SURE TODAY AND IN THE FUTURE.
AND WE'LL GET INTO SOME DETAILS AS TO HOW WE CAN MITIGATE AGAINST THE FOUR BIG.
SO HOW'S YOUR FLOOD RISK HARLINGEN? UM, BELIEVE IT OR NOT, CAMERON COUNTY IS MAPPED BY FEMA, WHAT'S CALLED THE FIRM FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP.
UM, BUT IT'S ONLY MAPPED NEAR FLOOD CONTROL PROJECTS OVER HERE.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE CITY OF HARLINGEN THERE, NOTICE THERE'S NO BLUES AND REDS, WHICH MEANS FEMA HASN'T MAPPED IT.
AND NOTE THIS MAP WAS LAST UPDATED IN JUNE OF 2018 BEFORE WE HAD THE URBAN FLOOD.
SO THAT'S AN ISSUE, RIGHT? WE STILL DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT OUR RATINGS ARE, BUT WE'LL GET TO THAT DISCUSSION WITH Y'ALL INVOLVED IN THE DISCUSSION AS WELL.
BUT THERE ARE OTHER WAYS TO HELP DETERMINE YOUR FLOOD RISK DOWN TO THE STREET LEVEL.
UM, THIS IS A GROUP CALLED FIRST STREET.
AND FIRST STREET ACTUALLY LOOKS AT RISK FOR THE FOUR BIGS, BELIEVE IT OR NOT, AND OTHER BIGS TOO.
AND UH, YOU TAKE A PICTURE OF THAT OR, UM, I DON'T HAVE A QR CODE UNFORTUNATELY, BUT YOU CAN PLUG IN YOUR ADDRESS OR YOUR STREET AND YOU CAN GET AN IDEA OF FLOOD RISK VALUES, UH, HERE IN HARLINGEN, UH, IN WESCO, IN SANTA ROSA, IN RIO HONDO, UM, YOU KNOW, DOWN IN BROWNSVILLE, WHATEVER, WHAT HAVE YOU.
AND THEN THE ONE BELOW THAT IS AN INTERESTING THING BEING DONE BY A DOCTOR STUDENT, A PHD CANDIDATE WHO'S NOW WORKING AT U-T-R-G-V-U-T-R-G-V FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA.
AND WHAT LUCAS IS DOING IS COMBINING SATELLITE DATA FROM THE FLOOD SINCE 2018.
ALL THE ONES THAT WE SAW ON THAT LAST EARLIER SLIDE WITH THE RAINFALL NUMBERS AND LOOKING AT RESPONSE FROM PEOPLE THAT WERE IMPACTED BY IT AND FOLDING IT TOGETHER TO HELP IMPROVE WHAT WE KNOW AS FLOOD RISK.
NOW ONE THING ABOUT FLOOD RISK IS IT'S ALL DETERMINED BY
[00:35:01]
PEOPLE'S IMPACT, WHICH IS ALSO DETERMINED BY THE MOVING TARGET OF HOW GOOD OR BAD OUR DRAINAGE DRAINAGES AND THAT MOVING TARGET IS CRAZILY CHANGING BECAUSE OF WHAT AGRICULTURAL LAND USE CHANGES.AND MORE IMPORTANTLY, URBAN AND SUBURBAN DEVELOPMENT, WHICH IS A NONSTOP DEAL IF WE'RE NOT KEEPING CAUGHT UP WITH IT.
OUR ATLAS DATA THAT WE'RE BASING THE ONE IN 100, ONE IN 500 MAY NOT BE ACCURATE EVEN TWO OR THREE YEARS LATER AFTER WE'VE UPDATED THE ATLAS.
AND BY THE WAY, THERE'LL BE A NEW ATLAS CALLED ATLAS 14 COMING OUT SOON.
I THINK IT'LL BE ATLAS 15, WHICH WILL UPDATE THE DATA.
BUT AGAIN, IT MAY BE DATED SOON AFTER IT HITS THE PRESS BECAUSE OF ALL THE CHANGES THAT GO ON.
SO AGAIN, HOW'S YOUR FLOOD RISK? LET'S HAVE SOME DISCUSSION HERE.
DO YOU THINK YOU ARE SAFE FROM FLOODWATERS? LET'S DISCUSS.
WHAT IS YOU? YOU COULD BE YOUR RESIDENTS, YOUR BUSINESS, YOUR CHURCH, YOUR BUILDING, UH, YOUR STREET.
HOW MANY PEOPLE THINK THAT THEY'RE SAFE FROM FLOOD WATERS AND WHAT LEVEL OF FLOODING, HOW MUCH RAIN AND HOW SHORT OR LONG A PERIOD OF TIME? IT'S ALL ABOUT RAIN AND RAINFALL RATE, NOT JUST ABOUT RAINFALL RATE MATTERS.
SO THINK ABOUT THAT AS WE PLUG AWAY HERE AT THE NEXT COUPLE OF BLURBS.
SO WHAT IF IT RAINS EIGHT INCHES AS WE MEASURE IT IN TWO HOURS? NOW EIGHT INCHES DOES NOT MEAN THE HEIGHT OF MY BOOT
IT'S NOT WHAT EIGHT INCHES MEAN.
IT'S AN OFFICIAL NO RAIN GAUGE IS HOW WE SAY EIGHT INCHES.
SO IF YOU HAVE EIGHT INCHES OF NO RAIN GAUGE VALUE IN TWO HOURS, SHOW OF HANDS OR ANYBODY WHO WANTS TO SPEAK UP, WHAT DO YOU THINK IT'LL LOOK LIKE IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD OR WHERE YOU WORK OR WHERE YOU DRIVE? NOT GOOD.
WHAT DOES NOT GOOD MEAN, SIR? IT WON'T BE ABLE TO COME INTO WORK.
UH, STREETS WOULD BE POSSIBLY FLOODED.
OKAY? UH, SO EIGHT INCHES OF TWO HOURS, WHICH STREET AND HOW MUCH WATER? LET'S TALK ABOUT WATER DEPTH.
EIGHT INCHES OF RAIN IN A GAUGE CAN EQUATE TO HOW MUCH DEPTH OF WATER ON THAT STREET.
HOW MUCH EXACTLY, BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP IT.
UH, WE'VE HAD, UH, SIX, I BELIEVE, RIGHT? WHERE WE, WE'VE HAD WATER LOCK IN THE STREETS OR THEY HAVE TO SHUT THE STREETS, RIGHT? TYPICALLY A STREET WILL BE FLOODED OUT WHERE VEHICLES GET IN TROUBLE AT OVER TWO AND A HALF OR THREE FEET, GET TWO FEET.
MOST HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE FINE.
GENERAL SEDANS AND SUVS ARE FINE.
UM, GET TO THREE FEET, THEY'RE IN SOME TROUBLE AND GET TO FOUR FEET.
YOUR HIGHEST PROFILE VEHICLES CAN BE IN TROUBLE EXCEPT THE ONES THAT ARE USED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT TO RESCUE PEOPLE.
SO EIGHT INCHES IN TWO HOURS, FOR EXAMPLE, IF IT'S A POOR DRAINAGE AREA THAT HAS NOT BEEN FIXED TO BE A BETTER, UM, MEASURE OF THE PROBABILITY.
HOW MANY YOU'VE ALL HEARD OF 100 YEAR FLOOD, RIGHT? YOU'VE HEARD OF THE ONE IN 100 ANNUAL RETURN INTERVAL OR A RI.
HOPEFULLY SOME OF YOU HAVE HEARD ABOUT THAT.
OKAY? WE BUILD INFRASTRUCTURE TO MATCH ONE OF THOSE VALUES.
AND THOSE VALUES CAN BE ONE IN 100, ONE IN 2 50, 1 IN 500, ONE IN 1000 COULD BE AS LOW AS ONE IN FIVE.
LET'S HOPE NOT, BUT IT COULD BE.
AND WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? ONE IN FIVE IS A 20% CHANCE IN ANY GIVEN YEAR THAT YOU WILL HAVE A DEVASTATING FLOOD IN THAT AREA.
1 0 100 IS A 1% CHANCE THAT WILL HAPPEN IN ANY GIVEN YEAR.
ONE IN 500 IS A 0.0, 2% CHANCE THAT COULD HAPPEN.
ONE OH 1000 IS A 0.1 0.1, NOT ZERO 2.2 AND 0.1, WHICH IS REALLY SMALL INFINITESIMAL.
HOW MANY PEOPLE THINK THAT CITY OF HARLINGEN IS BUILT EQUIVALENTLY AT A VALUE THAT'S REASONABLY GOOD FOR GENERAL PUBLIC SAFETY? AND THAT VALUE, I WOULD SAY IS ONE IN 100.
THAT'S THE VALUE THAT SHOWS YOU'RE SPENDING ENOUGH MONEY TO REDUCE THE WORST OF THE IMPACTS, BUT THERE'S NOT ENOUGH MONEY TO SPEND TO GET ALL OF THE IMPACTS.
WHERE DO YOU THINK HARLINGEN IS? HOW DO YOU, HOW MANY PEOPLE KNOW YOU'RE ALL IN THE ROOM, YOU'RE DRAINAGE DISTRICT FIVE.
THERE'S SOME CITY FOLKS IN HERE.
WHAT'S OUR NUMBER WILL TELL YOU SOME HISTORY THAT WE FOUND IN 2018 AT A MEETING LIKE THIS.
BUT WHAT DO YOU ALL THINK YOUR NUMBER IS? IS IT UNIFORM ACROSS THE CITY? NO.
WHAT DO YOU THINK YOUR WORST NUMBER IS? THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY NUMBER IS? WHAT DO YOU THINK IT IS? HOPEFULLY NOT ONE IN TWO THAT'S A 50% CHANCE THAT IN ANY GIVEN YEAR IF THE ATMOSPHERE WANTS TO PLAY IN THE DEVIL SANDBOX, THAT AREA'S GONNA FLOOD BIG TIME.
ANYONE THINK WE HAVE ANY ONE IN TWOS HERE? NEIGHBORHOODS, STREETS? I BET SOME OF THE OLD DOWNTOWN IS.
THINK SOME OF, THERE'S SOME ONE IN TWOS.
SHE SAYS WHAT ABOUT ONE IN 10? 10% CHANCE? OKAY,
[00:40:01]
ONE IN 25, 1 IN 50.HOW MANY THINK THAT THE MAJORITY OF PROBABILISTIC RATIOS FOR NEIGHBORHOOD STREETS HOUSES ARE ONE IN 100 OR GREATER? HOW MANY THINK IT'S ONE IN 100 OR GREATER? I DON'T SEE ANYONE RAISING THEIR HAND.
HOW ABOUT ONE IN 100 OR FEW OR OR LESS THAN ONE IN 100 LESS? YOU THINK THAT'S A PROBLEM? YEAH.
ARE WE PLANNING TO FIX IT? I DON'T KNOW.
I IF I MAY SAY, UH, I'M NOT AN ENGINEER, BUT AS AN ENGINEER I WORK WITH WHAT HAPPENED IN 2019 IN HARLINGEN, 16 INCHES OF RAIN AND UNDER SIX HOURS.
OH AND THIS ENGINEER STARTED TELLING ME, WELL SO AND SO CUBIC YARDS, I DON'T UNDERSTAND THAT HE SAID DELTA LAKE FELL IN HARLINGEN.
DELTA LAKE FELL IN HARLINGEN IN 2019 AND THERE WAS NO DRAINAGES IN THAT COULD HAVE HANDLED, HANDLED THE AMOUNT OF STORM WATER THAT CAME IN WITHIN THOSE SIX HOURS.
I MEAN, SO THE ANSWER TO THAT IS THERE MAY BE NO DRAINAGE SYSTEM TO HANDLE ALL OF THAT, BUT IF YOU BASE IT ON THE ATLAS 14 DATA, WHICH WE ACTUALLY EQUATE RAINFALL RATE AND RAINFALL TOTAL TO WHAT THAT PROBABILITY IS, YOU CAN ENGINEER FOR IT.
AND THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH MONEY ARE YOU ABLE TO SPEND OR WILLING TO SPEND TO GET TO THAT HAPPY MEDIUM? HERE'S WHY IT MATTERS.
OKAY? POOR DRAINAGE AREA RATED AT ONE IN FIVE.
OKAY? WE GET EIGHT INCHES IN TWO HOURS IN A ONE IN FIVE, 20% PROBABILITY.
I WILL GUARANTEE YOU THE THE WATER DEPTH IN THAT PORT DRAINAGE AREA WILL BE AROUND HERE THREE FEET, MAYBE FOUR.
WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR THE FIRST FOUR OF THE RESIDENCES THAT MAY NOT BE BURNED UP ABOVE THE BASE FLOOD ELEVATION? WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN TO 'EM IF THEY'RE GONNA FLOOD? ARE SANDBAGS GONNA HELP THAT? NO, I DON'T THINK SO.
OKAY, SO YOU'RE RATED AT ONE IN FIVE, BUT WHAT IF YOU SPEND THE APPROPRIATE FUNDS TO MAKE IT ONE IN 100.
NOW HOW MUCH WATER DEPTH DO YOU THINK THERE'LL BE FOR THE SAME AMOUNT OF RAIN? THINK IT'LL STILL BE THIS HIGH.
NO, THINK IT MIGHT BE DOWN HERE.
SO THERE'S STILL YEAH, FOOT AND A HALF, RIGHT? BUT IF YOU'RE BELOW A FOOT AND A HALF, YOU'RE PROBABLY NOT GETTING INTO THE HOME, WHICH MEANS YOU'RE REDUCING THE FOOTPRINT OF THE DAMAGE THAT WOULD HAVE TO BE COVERED BY INSURANCE.
OR WORST CASE, A LITTLE BIT OF FEMA MONEY.
IF THERE'S UNINSURED PROPERTY DAMAGE, CAN WE DO IT? SHOULD WE DO IT? I THINK MARCH 27, 28 TELLS US THAT WE SHOULD DO IT.
REDUCE THAT FOOTPRINT FROM HERE TO HERE.
NOW IS IT GONNA BE PERFECT? NO.
IF YOU GET EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL MASS TO ONE IN FIVE HUNDREDS AND IT'S A ONE IN 100 TYPE BUILD OUT, YOU MAY STILL GET TO WATER LEVELS LIKE THAT.
BUT ONE IN 500, EVEN WITH CHANGING CLIMATE AND ADDITIONAL LATENT HEAT OF CONDENSATION PRODUCING ALL THAT RAINFALL RATE IS STILL A VERY RARE EVENT.
AND IT'S GENERALLY A COST LOSS ASSESSMENT THAT WORKS OUT.
BUT YOUR COST LOSS IS WHAT YOU NEED TO LOOK AT.
NOW THESE ONE IN FIVE NEIGHBORHOODS, THEY'RE GETTING CRUSHED AND MORE FREQUENTLY AS WE SAW BETWEEN JUNE, 2018 AND MARCH, 2025.
WHEN DID THAT HAPPEN? ANYBODY KNOW? WHEN DID THAT HAPPEN? I JUST THREW THAT NUMBER UP THERE FOR FUN.
WHEN IS THAT? THAT NINE SIX OR 9 7 19 18? NOPE.
THAT IT DID IN SOME AREAS, YES.
BUT WHEN MOST RECENTLY THAT HAPPENED RIGHT HERE IN HARLINGEN LAST YEAR, LAST MARCH WE HAD, WE THINK WE HAD 20 TO 21 INCHES ON THE SOUTHEAST CORNER.
SO OF THE AIRPORT THAT'S WHAT WE ESTIMATED.
WE DON'T HAVE A GOOD MEASUREMENT, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD ESTIMATE THERE.
AND IT WAS IN ROUGHLY 12 HOURS AND WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED.
WE SAW RIO HONDO, WE THINK THE SAME NUMBERS PROBABLY FELL THERE.
AND WE SAW HOW BAD THEIR DRAINAGE WAS.
GREEN, WAS IT GREEN VALLEY FARMS GREEN? GREEN VALLEY ACRES I THINK WAS THE NAME OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD THEY WERE UNDERWATER FOR FOR WEEKS.
SO HOW ARE YOU ALL EQUIPPED TO FLOW THIS AMOUNT OF WATER IF WE GET NUMBER TWO AND NUMBER THREE? NUMBER ONE DIDN'T QUITE HAPPEN.
I THINK WE HAD NINE INCHES IN THREE HOURS, SO IT WAS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT RAINFALL RATE.
BUT THE OTHER ONES HAPPENED ROUGHLY THE 16 AND EIGHT WAS WE THINK HAPPENED IN THE CITY BETWEEN LIKE SIX OR 7:00 PM AND 2:00 AM I THINK THAT WAS ROUGHLY THE 16 AND EIGHT.
SO ARE WE EQUIPPED TO FLOW THIS AMOUNT OF WATER? CAN WE MAKE IT BETTER? I HOPE YOUR ANSWER IS YES, WE CAN MAKE IT BETTER.
[00:45:01]
LIKE I THINK WE'RE ALL WORKING TOWARDS THAT END.BUT I HAVE, I HAVE TO SAY MAYOR OLA JUST ARRIVED HERE, COMMISSIONER EZ, MAYOR GUERRA FROM SANTO AND WE GOT REPRESENTATION FROM DRAYTON DISTRICT NUMBER SIX HERE WITH US.
BUT WE'RE WORKING TOWARDS THOSE, YEAH, THOSE AREAS.
WIDENING CHANNELS, BUILDING DETENTION PONDS, THOSE ARE EFFORTS THAT WE'RE DOING RIGHT NOW, EVERY SINGLE DAY.
SO THE QUESTION I HAVE FOR THE ENGINEERS IS, ARE WE TRYING TO ATTEMPT THE ONE IN 100 VALUE? SO RIGHT NOW MOST OF THE DITCHES, THE WAY FEMA RATES, IF YOU'RE IN A FLOOD ZONE OR NOT, IT'S A ONE IN 100.
SO IF YOU'RE IN A SUN X OR SUN X SHADED, THE UNDEVELOPED LAND IS PROTECTED, RIGHT? SO WHAT WE'RE AIMING IS TO OUR DITCHES, THE ARROYO, COLORADO, THE NORTH MAIN DRAINS, TO ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THE CAPACITY FOR AT LEAST THE ONE 100 AS WE CONTINUE IMPROVING IT, INCREASING IT TO ONE AND 2 50, 1 TO 500, BASICALLY MAKING IT WIDER, BIGGER.
SO WATER GETS MOVED OUT TO THE GULF, THAT'S WHERE EVERYTHING DRAINS OUT TO AND IT'S GREAT NEWS TO HEAR LIKE THAT'S WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE SO THAT YOU CAN UM, SEE THIS RESULT.
AND UM, THE PROBLEM SOMETIMES IS THAT WE DON'T GET THE OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE RESULT.
IT IT'S A VERY RARE EVENT TO HAVE 20 INCHES OF RAIN IN MARCH OR ANYTIME.
AS I MENTIONED, BAH WASN'T EVEN THAT MUCH IN THAT TIMEFRAME, BUT WESCO HAD IT.
SO THE INDIAN HILLS LAS BRIA SUBDIVISION AREA IN 2019 AND 2018 BACK TO BACK AND THEN UH, 2020 AND 2021 WITH HANNAH AND NEXT EVENT THERE THEY GOT SIMILAR VALUES AND SOME OF THE PROJECTS THAT THEY WORKED ON THROUGH THE BOND REFERENDA, THERE WERE TWO OF 'EM, BUT THE ONE IN 18 WAS $200 MILLION.
IT WASN'T PERFECT BUT IT DEFINITELY REDUCED THE FOOTPRINT OF THIS MUCH WATER, REDUCED IT DRAMATICALLY.
SO THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT YOU COULD TALK TO UH, AN OLD OVER THERE AT HIDALGO COUNTY DRAINAGE DISTRICT ONE IF YOU ALL KNOW HIM.
UM, THEIR GROUP IS PART OF THAT PROCESS AND IT'S MADE A DIFFERENCE.
SO IT'S GREAT TO HEAR YOU'RE DOING THE SAME HERE 'CAUSE YOU'VE HAD THE SAME IMPACTS 2018 FLOOD 2019 FLOOD HURRICANE HANNAH 2025.
RIGHT? THERE'S NO REASON NOT TO BE REALLY STEPPING, UH, FRONT FOOT FORWARD TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN.
I'M GLAD TO HEAR THAT BECAUSE OUR JOB IN THE WEATHER SERVICE, WE ISSUE THINGS LIKE FLOOD WARNINGS AND EXTREME FLOOD WARNINGS KNOWN AS FLOOD EMERGENCIES AND ALL THAT.
WE'D LOVE TO REDUCE THE NUMBER WE ISSUED TO ZERO, ESPECIALLY THE EMERGENCIES.
AND THAT ONLY HAPPENS WHEN WE IMPROVE THE DRAINAGE CAPACITY SO THAT WE DON'T HAVE SITUATIONS LIKE WE SEE ON THE FRONTAGE ROAD, WHICH WE'VE NOW SEEN TWO OR THREE TIMES I THINK SINCE 2018, WHERE MUCH OF THAT FRONTAGE ROAD HAS BEEN UNDER THREE FOUR FEET OF WATER.
MACALLAN KNOWS THIS TOO, BY THE WAY.
THEY'VE GOT SOME REALLY INTERESTING SETUPS BY THE CONVENTION CENTER, WHICH ARE NOT GOOD.
I HAVE A QUESTION BEFORE YOU MOVE, MOVE ON.
UM, AND I THINK IT'D BE GOOD FOR THE, IT'S ON, IT'S ON OKAY FOR THE COMMUNITY.
UM, TALKING ABOUT THE MARCH, 2025, UH, RAIN EVENT.
WE HERE IN OUR COMMUNITY DID NOT REALLY HAVE ANY NOTICE THAT WE WERE GOING TO BE SEEN 20 TO 22 INCHES OF RAIN.
AND SO I THINK THE COMMUNITY WERE CONCERNED BECAUSE EVERYBODY WAS KIND OF GOING AROUND AND, AND, AND AND DOING THINGS IN THE COMMUNITY WITH NO NOTICE.
CAN YOU TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT HOW, UM, HOW THAT COMES TO BE TO BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE NOTICE AND WHEN THINGS, UM, CANNOT BE PLANNED FOR AND, AND AND WHY, WHY THAT IS? 'CAUSE THAT WAS A, THAT WAS WHAT I HEARD OVER AND OVER.
UM, YOU KNOW, THERE WAS LOTS OF EVENTS HAPPENING.
I REMEMBER ABOUT 5:00 PM THAT EVENING.
UH, I THINK WE WERE OVER AT A, WE WERE AT, UH, AT THE STEWART SUITES AND THEY WERE HAVING AN EVENT AND, AND EVERYBODY WAS JUST, YOU KNOW, HAVING A GOOD TIME AND THERE WAS NO, UM, RAIN IN THE FORECAST TO THAT DEGREE.
SO THERE WAS NO PLANNING EFFORTS.
AND THAT PUTS A REAL STRAIN ON ON COMMUNITIES.
CAN YOU TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THAT? YEAH.
SO I WAS READY FOR THIS QUESTION.
AND, AND ACTUALLY, UM, WE HAVE SOME INFORMATION ON OUR WEBSITE ABOUT THAT EVENT RELATED TO THE METEOROLOGY OF IT.
AND WE'LL BE PRESENTING HOPEFULLY AT SOUTH TEXAS ALL HAZARDS CONFERENCE HERE ON IT.
AND I'VE GOT SOME NEW DELAWARE COUNTY FOLKS THAT ARE GONNA BE JOINING ME TO DISCUSS THAT AND HOW WE TURN THE SHIP QUICKLY FROM WHAT HAD BEEN DROUGHT WILDFIRE POTENTIAL ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE FLOOD.
SO FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE, THERE'S GOOD AND BAD NEWS.
WE'LL START WITH THE BAD NEWS FIRST.
THE BAD NEWS IS WE'RE STILL NOT PERFECT AND NOT, WE'RE NOT ALWAYS GOOD AT ADVANCED NOTICE FOR HIGHLY
[00:50:01]
LOCALIZED EVENTS LIKE THE ONE WE SAW ON MARCH 27TH INTO THE 28TH.AND WE STILL HAVE WORK TO DO AND WE KNOW THAT WE HAVE WORK TO DO.
BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS WE HAVE COME A LONG WAY BABY
AND WE HAVE CASES WHERE HE ACTUALLY DID PRETTY WELL GOING BACK TO 2018.
SO MY POINT IS THIS, THE FORECAST FOR THAT EVENT, UM, TWO DAYS OUT, TWO AND A HALF DAYS OUT FOCUSED ON THE COASTAL BEND, CORPUS KINGSVILLE, UM, CAL ALLEN, PLACES LIKE THAT.
AND IT ENDED UP BEING THE VALLEY.
AND SO FOR THE LOCAL RESIDENTS LIKE YOURSELVES, IT'S A MISS.
IT'S A BUST BIG TIME, RIGHT? BUT FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE, I CAN TELL YOU THAT 10, 20, 30 YEARS AGO, WE MIGHT HAVE OUTLINED THE WHOLE STATE OF TEXAS OR MAYBE DALLAS-FORT WORTH FOR THE BIG AREA AND NOBODY SOUTH OF THERE WOULD'VE EVEN HAD A, A THOUGHT IN THEIR MIND ABOUT THAT KIND OF RAIN.
WE WERE ONLY 80 TO A HUNDRED MILES OFF ON THIS ONE POINT BEING THAT AS WE IMPROVE OUR MODELING, AS WE USE HIGHER COM COMPUTATIONAL POWER, THINGS LIKE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND MACHINE LEARNING, IT'S GONNA GET US THERE.
THERE'LL STILL BE, CASES WILL BE OFF, BUT WILL BE LESS AND LESS OFF OVER TIME.
WE'RE SEEING THAT WITH HURRICANE HURRICANE'S A GREAT EXAMPLE.
TRACK FORECASTS ARE INCREDIBLY GREAT NOW COMPARED TO WHAT THEY WERE 30, 40 YEARS AGO.
BUT A HURRICANE'S A LARGER, LONGER LASTING ENTITY.
SO WE'LL STILL HAVE ISSUES, WE'LL STILL HAVE MISSES, BUT WE'RE BUILDING A BETTER CAPACITY TO GET THESE EVENTS.
AND THE FACT THAT WE WEREN'T TOO FAR OFF JUST TWO, THREE DAYS OUT WAS A GOOD SIGN FOR THE FUTURE.
IT DOESN'T HELP YOU NOW THOUGH, WE KNOW THAT CORPUS WAS PREPARING BECAUSE THEY SAW THE WHITES OF ITS EYES AND THEN IT SHIFTED 100 MILES SOUTH AND GOT US, HAD IT BEEN THE OTHER WAY AROUND, IT WOULD'VE BEEN BAD FOR THEM TOO.
HAD IT BEEN DEAD ON, WE WOULD'VE HAD THAT 48 TO 60, 72 HOURS A WINDOW TO PROVIDE REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIOS TO GET ALL THE FOLKS LIKE TOM'S FOLKS ENGAGED AND READY.
'CAUSE THAT'S WHAT WE'RE DOING NOW.
WE'RE PROVIDING IMPACT BASED DECISION SUPPORT TO GET PEOPLE READY FOR PUBLIC SAFETY AS FAR IN ADVANCE AS WE CAN.
AND THIS ONE DIDN'T WORK OUT BECAUSE THE NATURE OF HOW SMALL SCALE THE METEOROLOGY WAS AND HOW OUR MODELS DIDN'T RESOLVE THE A HUNDRED MILE DIFFERENCE TWO AND A HALF DAYS OUT.
BUT AS TIME WEARS ON, WE'RE GONNA GET CLOSER AND CLOSER AND WE'RE ALREADY SEEING SOME BENEFICIAL SITUATIONS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WHERE THE EVENTS HAVE HIT.
UM, FOR EXAMPLE, THE HILL COUNTRY FLOOD'S AN INTERESTING CASE AND THE RECENT CALIFORNIA FLOODS ARE A GOOD CASE.
AND THE CALIFORNIA FIRES LAST YEAR ARE REALLY GOOD CASE.
WE KNEW THAT COMING A WEEK OUT THERE WERE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND HIGH DANGER INFORMATION LIKE FIVE DAYS BEFORE THE THE PALISADES FIRES, RIGHT? SO WITH THE FLOODING CALIFORNIA, WE HAD SEVERAL DAYS OF LEAD TIME THIS YEAR AND THE OTHER EVENT WITH THE HILL COUNTRY, UM, THERE'S STILL A DISTANCE ISSUE IN DAYS, BUT BY THE TIME WE GOT TO TWO AND A HALF DAYS OUT WE WERE LIKE, UH OH, THIS COULD BE BAD.
EXACTLY WHICH RIVER AND HOW LONG AND WHERE.
THAT'S STILL TRICKY BUT AT LEAST WE HAD THE IDEA OF IT.
SO THAT'S GOING TO START HAPPENING HERE MORE AND MORE.
THERE'LL STILL BE CASES WHERE WE MIGHT MISS, MAYBE WE GET IT OFF BY 50 MILES AND MAYBE IT HITS THE OPEN KING RANCH, RIGHT? AND THAT'S THE FORECAST AREA AND IT GETS THE VALLEY UHOH STILL A MISS, BUT A LOT CLOSER.
AND ULTIMATELY WE'LL GET MORE THAT NAIL US AND WE HAVE THE REASONABLE WORST CASE SCENARIO THAT THERE COULD BE 20 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE 16 HOURS, WHICH SAYS UHOH, THAT'S REALLY BAD AND WE KNOW THAT 72 HOURS OUT.
I HOPE THAT HELPS ANSWER THE QUESTION.
YES, I THINK IT IT AND, AND I KNOW THAT WE'RE PRIVY TO THAT INFORMATION, BUT FOR THE COMMUNITY THAT IT STILL HAS THOSE CONCERNS, I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO, TO UNDERSTAND THAT WE'VE IDENTIFIED THOSE ISSUES AND WE KNOW THAT THEY EXIST AND THAT WE'RE WORKING TOWARDS THIS AS YOU MENTIONED, TO BE ABLE TO IMPROVE AND TO PROVIDE ADEQUATE NOTICE, RIGHT? THE RESILIENCE THOUGH WILL HELP IN ALL CASES.
SO IF WE'RE OFF BY 50 TO A HUNDRED MILES BUT YOUR ONE OF 100 RESILIENCE IS BUILT, THEN YOU WILL HAVE A FLOOD.
'CAUSE IN SOME OF THESE CASES AROUND THE AREA, WERE ONE IN 2 50, 1 IN 500.
BUT INSTEAD OF HAVING THIS MUCH WATER, WHICH WE HAD, YOU'RE DOWN HERE.
AND THAT'S A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO RESPONSE AND RECOVERY.
IF YOU DON'T HAVE FLOOD INSURANCE, I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE HERE DO, HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE FLOOD INSURANCE? GOOD.
ABOUT A THIRD OF YOU, I'D LIKE TO SEE IT BE MORE LIKE 60 TO 70% OF YOU.
IT'S NOT THAT EXPENSIVE, ALTHOUGH IT HAS GONE UP OVER THE YEARS, I'LL BE HONEST.
UM, IF YOU GET IT, GET IT IN NOVEMBER, PLEASE.
WHY SHOULD YOU GET IT IN NOVEMBER? WHAT'S THE BEST REASON TO GET IT IN NOVEMBER? THE END OF THE HURRICANE.
[00:55:01]
A ONE YEAR POLICY.WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? NEXT MAY YOU DON'T HAVE TO DO ANYTHING, YOU SET IT AND FORGET IT 'CAUSE YOU PAID ALL AT ONCE.
SET IT, FORGET IT, THE SEASON ENDS, DRY SEASON COMES IN, YOU'RE COMING IN BEFORE MARCH AND APRIL 'CAUSE YOU NEVER KNOW WE SAW IT LAST YEAR.
UM, AND YOU ARE GOOD TO GO THROUGH MARCH AND APRIL TOO.
SO NOVEMBER, NOVEMBER, EVEN OCTOBER.
SO WE TALKED ABOUT THIS AT AT FINITE ON THE ANNUAL RETURN INTERVAL.
UM, THIS IS MY FEELING IS THAT EVERY INCH OF THE LRGV SHOULD BE RATED AT 1 0 100 AT LEAST.
AND AGAIN, REANALYSIS IS CONSTANT.
THIS IS A MOVING TARGET INCLUDING FARMLAND.
SO THAT'S THE TRICK TO FLOODING.
WINDSTORM RESILIENCE IS A LITTLE EASIER IN A WAY.
SO AGAIN, THESE ARE SOME EXAMPLES OF THE PROJECTS THAT H UH, CHCD ONE ON THE LEFT AND THEN SOME, UH, EXAMPLES OF OF NEWS ARTICLES ABOUT WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE.
THE REGIONAL PLANNING GROUP, I YOU MAY HAVE HEARD ABOUT THAT.
THAT FORMED UP I THINK AFTER MARCH.
UM, THIS HAS BEEN AN ONGOING DISCUSSION AND THAT'S WHY FLOOD IS THE NUMBER ONE BIG, YOU'VE WE'RE HAVING REALLY GOOD DISCUSSION HERE, RIGHT OVER THE COURSE OF MAYBE 15 MINUTES SO FAR OF WHY FLOOD RESILIENCE IS HUGE 'CAUSE IT IS THE NUMBER ONE BIG.
BIG GENERALLY NUMBER TWO, BIG WINDSTORM MORE THAN HURRICANES, BELIEVE IT OR NOT, SINCE 20.
ARE THERE ANY DISCUSSION POINTS YOU WANT TO GO OVER ON THE FLOODING SIDE? 'CAUSE WE GOT STILL HAVE DROUGHT AND WATER RESOURCES.
I'LL STICK AROUND FOR A LITTLE BIT AFTER BY THE WAY FOR THAT.
SO SINCE 2010 ONLY HURRICANE HANNAH HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD TROPICAL RELATED WIND DAMAGE.
MOST OF OUR WIND EVENTS HAVE COME FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND HERE THEY ARE.
MARCH 29TH, 2012, WIND-DRIVEN HAIL MACALLAN, $660 MILLION OF INSURED DAMAGE.
HAPPENED TO HIT SOME OF THE HIGHEST, UM, PROPERTY VALUE CENSUS TRACTS IN THE VALLEY.
AND THEY GOT RAVAGED PRETTY HARD BY THAT.
UH, THAT SAME YEAR THERE WAS A NEAR MISS OUT THERE, 102 MILE PER HOUR GUSTS MEASURED BY A WIND TURBINE THAT WAS BEING TESTED.
AND IT WAS AT 10 METERS WHERE WE TYPICALLY MEASURE OUR WIND IN THE WEATHER SERVICE.
IMAGINE IF THAT HAD HIT THE POPULATED AREA WITH THELONIUS.
UH, WE DID HAVE COLONIAL WIND DAMAGE A FEW YEARS LATER.
UH, NORTH WESCO, NORTH DONNA AND I GOT THAT HIGHLIGHTED 'CAUSE I WAS JUST SPEAKING TO WESCO.
UM, 2016 MISSION TO HIDALGO CITY MICROBURST, UH, DESTROYED THEIR BUILDING.
A $5 MILLION PROPERTY, UH, BLEW IN THE SIDEWALL AND WIND HAS TO GO OUT IF IT GOES IN RIGHT.
UH, $4 MILLION IN DAMAGE, MAYBE 5 MILLION I THINK IT WAS, WAS GOING TO BE USED AS A SHELTER.
IT HAD A NICE GYM IN IT AND EVERYTHING ELSE.
IT JUST TORE THE THING UP AND WHY IT DID NOT HAVE A WALL TO ROOF CONNECTION.
AND HE PUFFED AND HE BLEW THE HOUSE IN, UM, WITH 85 TO 95 MILE PER HOUR WIND.
CATEGORY ONE EDGING ON CATEGORY TWO GUSTS DESTRUCTIVE WIND IN NORTHEAST DAGA.
THAT WAS THE SAME DAY WE HAD THE FLOODING.
UM, IN 2019 THERE WAS ALSO 80 MILE PER HOUR WINDS CAUSED DAMAGE IN MONTE ALTO, NOT TOO FAR AWAY.
UM, AND HERE IN HARLINGEN TOO, WE HAD SOME DAMAGE.
UH, APRIL 28, 20 NINTH, THAT WAS THE FULL VALLEY SQUALL LINE FROM THE CALLEN HARLINGEN.
THE MOST POPULATED AREA GOT HIT PRETTY HARD.
WE'RE NOT SURE WHAT THE TOTAL VALUE OF DOLLARS WAS, BUT PROBABLY 10 TO 50 MILLION.
BUT THE WINDS WERE 80 TO 85 AND IT MISSED MOST OF OUR COLONIALS.
AND THIS WAS THE BAD ONE IN THAT SAME YEAR.
SO WE HAD A BUSY YEAR IN 2023.
LAGUNA HEIGHTS DEADLY TORNADO.
THIS IS WHERE WIND RESILIENCE COMES IN.
THIS IS WHERE WE GOTTA FIX THINGS.
MY NEXT CAREER, BY THE WAY, IS GOING INTO THIS SPACE.
I'VE BEEN IN THE AGENCY 40 YEARS AND I'M LOOKING AT RETIREMENT AND TUBE.
I'M NOT QUITTING 'CAUSE WE HAD A DEADLY TORNADO IN LAGUNA HEIGHTS.
AND DO YOU REALIZE THAT THE MAN WHO WAS KILLED WENT INTO THE INTERIOR OF HIS, OF HIS BUILDING AS HE SHOULD, BASED ON OUR WARNING.
HE HAD ENOUGH TIME, NOT A LOT, BUT HE HAD ENOUGH TIME BUILDING COLLAPSED ON HIM AND KILLED HIM.
HAVE YOU BEEN THERE? YOU'VE ALL DRIVEN BY IT.
DOES IT HAVE TO BE THAT WAY? NO, HE, HE DOUBLE HOCKEY STICKS.
AND UNFORTUNATELY THE STATE OF TEXAS DOESN'T HAVE A LOT OF CODE REGULATION BEYOND THE INCORPORATED AREAS.
THE IBHS, THE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS HOME SAFETY, UM, ORGANIZATION THAT'S BASED IN SOUTH CAROLINA SAID TEXAS IS THE WORST DISASTER WAITING TO HAPPEN IN THE SOUTH.
'CAUSE OTHER STATES ARE DOING THINGS.
FLORIDA DID IT YEARS AGO AFTER ANDREW 1992, LOUISIANA'S PICKING UP THE BEAT ALABAMA.
ALABAMA'S REALLY PICKING UP THE BEAT WITH FORTIFIED HOME.
THERE COULD BE SOME OTHER ISSUES GOING ON IN MISSISSIPPI.
I JUST NAMED THREE STATES THAT ARE KIND OF GULF STATES AND WE'RE THE BIGGEST AND MOST POPULOUS AND VERY PROSPEROUS.
[01:00:01]
WITH THAT.I UNDERSTAND TEXAS POLITICS, I GET IT.
BUT WE WANNA PROTECT PEOPLE IN THE RURAL AREAS AND THE SUBURBAN EXURBAN AREAS TOO.
AND MAY A 2025, THE NORTH MACALLAN MICROBURST THAT WAS IN THE CITY LIMITS, UH, AGAIN, POORLY BUILT STRUCTURES, UM, NOT WORST BUILT BUT GENERALLY POORLY BUILT, HAD DAMAGE.
IT DIDN'T REALLY HAVE TO HAVE AT WINDS.
UH, IN CATEGORY ONE STRENGTH FROM A THUNDERSTORM EVENT.
AND THIS IS NOT CLICKING FOR ME, THERE WE GO.
SO HOW DO YOU FIX WINDSTORM AND BUILD RESILIENCE? YOU CHECK YOUR RISK THROUGH LOAD PATH.
ANY ENGINEERS IN THE ROOM WHO'VE DONE WIND OR CIVIL ENGINEERING, ARCHITECTURAL ENGINEERING, ANYBODY, Y'ALL PROBABLY KNOW ABOUT THIS IF YOU HAVEN'T SEEN IT.
BUT IF YOUR LOAD PATH IS CORRECT AS SHOWN ON THE RIGHT AND LEFT, THEN YOU WILL DO OKAY IN THAT BUILDING.
BUT IF YOU HAVE ANY WEAK LINKS IN THAT, THE BUILDING WILL FAIL AT HIGHER WINDS.
AND THOSE HIGHER WINDS MAY NOT BE MORE THAN 95 MILES AN HOUR.
AND WE DO GET THAT OUTSIDE OF HURRICANES.
MY GARAGE DOOR ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE THE ONE ON THE LEFT.
UM, THE ONE ON THE RIGHT OBVIOUSLY WAS NOT.
UM, CAMERON COUNTY SHOULD HAVE GARAGE DOORS THAT LOOKED LIKE THIS IN MOST SUBDIVISIONS.
BUT I COULD TELL YOU IN ALGO THAT SAME NEIGHBORHOOD I I, UH, SURVEYED ON MAY 8TH LAST YEAR.
THE GARAGE ON THE RIGHT WAS WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE OVER THERE.
THEY HAD A TEARAWAY GARAGE, UM, IT'S NOT SUPPOSED TO BE.
AND THEY HAD TWO GARAGES AND THE WIND BLEW THROUGH ONE AND FORTUNATELY DIDN'T CAUSE ANY MORE DAMAGE.
BUT IT HAD NO CROSS BEAMS, IT HAD NOTHING LIKE THAT.
AND THESE WINDS WERE, UH, TOTALLY EXPOSED BY THE WAY, NO TREES OR NO BLOCKAGES AND 80, 85 MILE PER HOUR WINDS BLEW THAT GARAGE IN AND NOT THE ONE ON THE LEFT.
AND THIS IS INTERESTING, THIS IS FROM THE UM, EVENT ON APRIL 28TH, 29TH.
THIS IS A MIDNIGHT EVENT BY THE WAY, WHICH IS WHY I GOT THE OTHER DATE IN THERE.
BUT NOTICE THE PEEL BACK OF THE SPANISH TILE ROOF IN A PRETTY NICE NEIGHBORHOOD SOUTH OF WESCO AND A MASONRY FENCE IF YOU WILL.
SO AGAIN, AS YOUR HOME AGES, REPAIRS MAY NEED TO BE, UH, NEEDED TO WITHSTAND LOWER WIND SPEEDS.
YOUR HOME MAY BE RATED AT ONE 20 LIKE MINE, BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN IT'S GONNA STAY ONE 20 IF YOU HAVEN'T DONE THE REPAIRS AFTER SO MANY YEARS IN IT.
I MEAN OUR CLIMATE HERE IS PRETTY ROUGH AND IT STARTS TO WEAR THINGS DOWN.
IF YOU DECREASE YOUR RISK, YOU INCREASE YOUR RESILIENCE OR IT SHOULD BE THE OTHER WAY AROUND, RIGHT? BUT IF YOU DON'T FIX YOUR RESILIENCE, YOU'RE GOING TO BE AT HIGHER RISK FROM IMPACT.
THESE ARE WINDSTORM REQUIREMENTS FROM TDI.
SO UM, HERE IN CAMERON COUNTY WE ARE REQUIRED TO HAVE TDI BUT AGAIN, IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY UH, BE UNIFORM BETWEEN URBAN, SUBURBAN AND RURAL.
WE NEED TO REALLY MAKE SURE WE, WE DO THAT ACROSS THE BOARD BECAUSE OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN AND ALL THE GROWTH THAT WE'RE SEEING HERE.
ANY QUESTIONS ON WINDSTORM? RESILIENCE? GOING ONCE, GOING TWICE.
HEAT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY.
DID YOU KNOW THAT? ANYONE THINK IT FEELS ANY LONG TIMERS HERE HAVE BEEN HERE FOR 40, 50, 60 YEARS? LEMME A SHOW OF HANDS.
IS IT HOTTER THAN IT USED TO BE 40, 50, 60 YEARS AGO? DEFINITELY I SEE A YES, DEFINITELY SHE SAYS ANYBODY ELSE GOOD? YES.
THIS IS ONE OF THE HOTTEST PLACES WHEN YOU COMBINE TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE CALENDAR YEAR IN THE USA, THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
BUT WE'RE SEEING HOTTER DAYS AND WARMER NIGHTS AND WHAT'S THAT LEADING TO? INCREASED EVAPORATION AND LOWER SOIL MOISTURE RETENTION.
WE'RE GONNA GET TO WHY THAT MATTERS.
THAT'S OUR THIRD BIG, YOU KNOW, IT CERTAINLY APPLIES HERE.
AND THIS LEADS TO RAPID ONSET DROUGHT, WHICH IMPACTS OUR ONE PLUS BILLION DOLLAR AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY.
HOW MANY PEOPLE KNOW ABOUT THE SUGAR MILL? WHAT HAPPENED TO THE SUGAR MILL? WHY DID THE SUGAR MILL CLOSE? ANYBODY KNOW WHY? OF WATER.
BUT YOU MIGHT HAVE HEARD ON THE NEWS THAT IT WAS MEXICO'S DELIVERIES THAT CAUSED IT, OKAY? A LITTLE BIT.
THAT'S WHY INCREASED EVAPORATION, LOWER SOIL MOISTURE RETENTION.
I'M GONNA SHOW YOU THE NUMBERS THAT ARE GONNA STAGGER YOU IN A MINUTE.
AND BY THE WAY, IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT AG, IT'S ABOUT YOUR COMMUNITIES TOO.
SO IF FOR LACK OF RELIABLE WATER SOURCE, WATER SCARCITY MEANS TROUBLE FOR COMMUNITIES TOO.
DID YOU KNOW THAT 90% OF OUR WATER WELL UP TO 90% COMES FROM THE RIO GRANDE AND THROUGH THE RESERVOIR SYSTEMS THAT ARE INTERNATIONAL AND MEXICAN.
THAT'S VERY UNIQUE IN PLACES I'VE WORKED.
WE DIDN'T HAVE THAT SITUATION ELSEWHERE.
SO TEXAS IS A STATE OF PERPETUAL DROUGHT.
AND I WANNA POINT THESE, UM, STATEMENTS OUT HERE.
I DON'T THINK THEY'RE IN THE ROOM, BUT THEY ARE VERY IMPORTANT AGRICULTURAL PARTNERS THAT WE WORK WITH.
ON THE LEFT IT'S BENNY CANO, UH, U-S-D-A-F-S, A FARM SERVICE EXTENSION AGENT OVER AT EDINBURGH
[01:05:01]
ON THE RIGHT IT'S DANTE GALLI WHO'S THE TIPA, TEXAS INTERNATIONAL PRODUCE ASSOCIATION, UH, PRESIDENT.AND WHAT'S INTERESTING ABOUT THESE DATA AND HIS THESE QUOTES ARE THAT WE HAD A STORM CALLED TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IN JUNE, 2024.
AND WHILE THE CENTER MADE LANDFALL NEAR TOM PICO, WE HAD SOME GOOD RAIN.
WE HAD ABOUT SIX TO EIGHT, SIX TO NINE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE VALLEY.
AND THEN IT RAINED IN JULY ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN JULY.
BUT BY THE TIME WE GOT TO MID TO LATE AUGUST, IT STARTED LOOKING LIKE THAT.
AND THEY'RE SAYING THINGS LIKE NO SOIL MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF AND DRYING UP QUICKER.
NOW A MONTH SINCE OUR LAST RAIN, THINGS ARE BURNING UP.
REALLY WE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN JUNE AND JULY, 2024.
AND BY THE END OF AUGUST THINGS ARE BURNING UP.
WHY? WHY ARE THEY BURNING UP IN JUST ONE MONTH AFTER GOOD RAIN? THE HEAT.
BUT THINK OF THE LONG TERM, WHAT'S GOING IN THE LONG TERM.
I MENTIONED IT BEFORE, EVAPORATION.
SO THE SOIL MOISTURE'S LIKE A SPONGE SUCKS IT UP AND DOESN'T USE IT.
IF IT RAINS TOO HARD TOO QUICKLY, THAT ALL RUNS OFF ANYWAY.
SO NOW YOU'VE GOT A COMBINATION OF SOME RUNOFF AND LOW EVAPORATION, WHICH MEANS THAT YOUR CROPS ARE STARTING TO BURN UP IN JUST A MONTH'S TIME AFTER DECENT RAIN.
I CAN TELL YOU WHAT, THAT'S RELATIVELY NEW.
BUT THE DROUGHT CAN BE BROKEN BY THE OCCASIONAL DEVASTATING FLOOD
SO IT'S TWO PRONGS WE NEED TO INVEST IN.
WE NEED TO INVEST OBVIOUSLY IN DRAINAGE FOR FLOODING 'CAUSE WE JUST SAW IT IN MARCH.
BUT WE NEED TO RES IN THE WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT.
WE'LL GET TO THAT MOMENTARILY.
SO HERE'S YOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS.
THIS GOES BACK TO A PERIOD OF RECORD, 1895 IN THE LOWER VALLEY.
AND WHEN YOU GET TO UM, 1975, YOU KIND OF SEE EVEN STEVEN, MAYBE A LITTLE DIP THERE IN THE SEVENTIES.
BUT LOOK WHAT HAPPENS AS YOU GET INTO THE EIGHTIES AND BEYOND.
THAT GREEN LINE IS EXPONENTIALLY RISING.
THE THREE HOTTEST YEARS IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ARE ANSWER FOR ME THREE HOTTEST YEARS ON RECORD BACK TO THE 1890S, 1900 TIMEFRAME.
YOU WON'T WANT TO HAZARD A GUESS THE LAST THREE.
THE LAST THREE, WHO'S GOT A CANDY BAR? GIVE THAT MAN A CANDY BAR.
THE LAST THREE, YOU CAN KIND OF SEE IT ON THERE IF YOU'RE LOOKING REALLY CLOSE.
BUT IF YOU'RE NOT LOOKING THAT CLOSELY, THAT IS CORRECT.
THE LAST THREE, AND HERE'S SOME INTERESTING STATS.
THE PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER TO EARLY WINTER, UH, WAS THE HOTTEST ON RECORD IN 2025 THAT BEAT OUT THE HOTTEST ON RECORD IN 2024 THAT BEAT OUT THE HOTTEST ON RECORD IN 2023.
Y'ALL THINK WE GOT AN EVAPORATION PROBLEM? PLEASE NOD YOUR HEAD.
IT SEEMS IT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE CHANGING ANY NOW THIS IS THE MORE TELLING STATISTIC RIGHT HERE.
SO JANUARY, DECEMBER, 2025, THAT'S THE YEAR OF 2025.
WE JUST GOT DECEMBER DATA IN YESTERDAY.
UH, WAS THE THIRD WARMEST ON RECORD AND THE WARMEST IN 2024, WHICH I BELIEVE WAS NUMBER TWO.
UM, BUT THE YEARS, THE 18 MONTHS, WHICH IS A YEAR AND A HALF ALL THE WAY TO FIVE YEARS IS THE WARMEST ON RECORD TO DATE, UM, FOR THAT PERIOD.
AND IT'S THE WARMEST SINCE WE LOOKED AT 2019 TO 20 24, 20 18 TO 2023, RIGHT? IT JUST KEEPS ON OVERLAPPING EACH OTHER.
YOU'RE GOING BACK OVER A HUNDRED YEARS, RIGHT? 120 PLUS YEARS IN SOME CASES.
PRECIPITATION ON THE OTHER HAND, DOESN'T SHOW TOO MUCH VARIABILITY.
THAT SAME CURVE IT'S CALLED THE LOWEST CURVE IS SHOWN HERE AND YOU CAN SEE THAT IT RISES AND FALLS KIND OF EQUIVALENTLY.
UM, THERE'S BEEN A LITTLE BIT OF A RISE IN THE OVERALL NUMBER GOING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE 1890S, BUT VERY LITTLE RELATIVE TO THE BIG PICTURE.
BUT YOU SEE THE SPIKES IN THE VALLEYS, YOU KNOW THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS THERE OF RAINFALL AND THAT'S PRETTY COMMON, RIGHT? SOME YEARS ARE GONNA BE WET, SOME YEARS ARE GONNA BE DRY.
SO WE CAN'T MAKE TOO MANY HEADS FROM TAILS FROM THE PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY.
WHAT WE CAN SAY HOWEVER, IS THAT INDIVIDUAL EVENTS ARE BEING FED BY LATENT HEAT OF CONDENSATION FED BY RECORD WARM WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE GOLFING CARIBBEAN, RIGHT? SO WHEN IT RAINS IT POURS AND WHEN IT POURS AND POURS, IT FLOODS.
AND WE'RE SEEING MORE OF THAT 20 18, 20 19, 20 20, 20 21, 20 25.
NOT EVERY YEAR BUT A LOT OF YEARS.
ONE IN 100 PLUS EVENTS, NO LONGER IS IT THE SAME 100 YEAR.
BUT WATER RESOURCE ISSUES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
SO WHEN IT'S NOT RAINING, IT'S CERTAINLY BEEN PRETTY WARM TO HOT.
AND THERE'S OUR RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE SHADED AREA ON THE LOWER RIGHT BACK TO 2023.
AND THESE ARE NEAR RECORD OR RECORD LOWS.
THE LATEST VALUE, THIS IS THE UH, OMNISTAR MINUS FALCON PERCENT OF CONSERVATION CAPACITY PROVIDED BY THE IBWC, THE BOUNDARY WATER COMMISSION, STILL NEAR RECORD LOWS IN EARLY 2026.
[01:10:01]
THE MEXICAN CHAIRS DROPPED OFF THE CHART, IT'S LIKE 4.9%, WHICH IS RANKED WITH SOME OF THE LOWEST THAT THEY'VE HAD TO DEAL WITH ON RECORD OR AT LEAST BACK TO 1996.IT'S A LONG TIME BUT THE US VALUES NUDGED UPWARD A LITTLE BIT, BUT STILL LOOK AT THE BLUE LINE, IT'S WAY DOWN THERE.
SO THE COMBINATION IS STILL AT OR NEAR RECORD LOWS AND IT'S BEEN THERE FOR A WHILE.
WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR DISTRIBUTION OF WATER DOWN THE RESERVOIRS? WHAT DOES THAT MEAN FOR INFLOW INTO THE MEXICAN RESERVOIRS THAT FEED OURS IN THE MEXICAN TRIBUTARIES? IS THERE A LOT OF WATER TO FEED YES OR NO? NOT REALLY.
THERE WAS ONE YEAR WHERE THERE WAS SOME AND THAT CAUSED SOME POLITICAL KERFUFFLE AND I UNDERSTAND THAT 2022.
BUT EVEN THEN IT WOULD NOT HAVE GOTTEN TO THE LEVEL WE NEED TO MEET THE DELIVERY REQUIREMENTS FROM THE TREATY.
SO LET'S TALK ABOUT THE RESERVOIRS.
THESE ARE THE VALUES THAT FEED INTO AMISTAD, AVAYA RIO CONCHOS, WHICH IS REALLY IMPORTANT 'CAUSE THE RIO CONCHOS RIVER BASIN IN MEXICO, UH, HAS RESERVOIRS ALONG IT AS WELL.
BUT THE LACK OF PERSISTENT TROPICAL RAINS HAVE KEPT THEIR WATERS LEVELS DOWN TOO.
IT HAS 2,840 7,000 CUBIC METERS IN STORAGE AS MAXIMUM AND IT'S LEVELED OFF SINCE OCTOBER 1ST.
AND IT'S ONLY SITTING ON 38% TOTAL CONSERVATION.
UH, WHAT MEXICO NEEDS THEIR WATER TOO.
SO THEY'RE NOT GONNA GIVE UP MUCH IF THEY DON'T HAVE MUCH TO GIVE THEMSELVES.
UM, FOR, UH, FRANCISCO I MADERO, UM, THAT'S ALSO ON THE CONCHO.
THAT'S THE SECOND HIGHEST TCM.
WHEN I MEAN LEVEL IT MEANS THAT THEY ARE FLAT.
YOU CAN SEE SINCE OCTOBER THEY'VE BEEN PRETTY FLAT.
LUIS LEON IS ALSO IN THE CONCHOS BUT ONLY 284 TCM, WHICH IS STILL A GOOD NUMBER, BUT NOWHERE NEAR WHAT ILLA OFFERS.
AND THEIR LEVEL AT 43 AND SAN GABRIELLE IS AT 2 45.
AND THESE ARE IMPORTANT RESERVOIRS 'CAUSE THEIR RELEASES CAN GO DOWNSTREAM AND THE RIO CONCHOS WILL FEED INTO AMISTAD, WHICH THEN COULD BE RELEASED TO FEED DOWN THE RIO GRANDE INTO FALCON.
BUT IF THERE'S NOT A LOT OF WATER TO GIVE, WE'RE NOT GONNA GET ALL THAT MUCH WATER OUT OF THE RESERVOIRS.
AND THAT'S KIND OF WHERE WE STAND.
SO THIS IS, UH, FALCON WHERE MOST OF OUR WATER DELIVERY COMES FROM.
AND IN 2025 THE HIGHEST VALUE WAS 13.3% IN, UH, FEBRUARY LAST YEAR.
AND IT ROSE AND FELL, BUT MOSTLY FELL ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 9.6% IN EARLY NOVEMBER AND THEN RELEASES OUT OF AMISTAD.
UH, COMING TO FALCON HAS RAISED IT BACK TO A WHOPPING 12.3% AS OF YESTERDAY.
SO THAT'S WHERE WE'RE AT, ALL BELOW 13.
AS I SAID BEFORE, UH, HOPING FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT A WATER MANAGEMENT STRATEGY.
SO MINUTE 3 31 WAS A, UM, WAS ADDENDUM TO THE 1944 WATER TREATY.
AS YOU SEE, 1944 IS GETTING PRETTY LONG IN THE TOOTH, BUT IT ALLOWS SOME WATER TO BE DISTRIBUTED THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE, UH, FROM THE RIO SAN JUAN.
AND THESE ARE THE RIO SAN JUAN BASIN AND THE ALAMO BASIN.
THE ALAMO IS VERY SMALL, IT DOESN'T REALLY COUNT FOR GIVING US THE NECESSARY WATER, BUT AGAIN, NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR WATER CONTROLLED BY THE TREATY AS MEXICO MUST AGREE TO THE DISTRIBUTION.
IT'S THEIR WATER FIRST AND FOREMOST AND THEY ARE AGREEING TO SOME DISTRIBUTION.
BUT LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY 68 AND 93.
BUT PART OF THAT 68 AT CCHI, WHICH IS ABOUT I THINK 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARTY GOMEZ, WHICH IS NEAR UH, STAR COUNTY, UM, IS BECAUSE THEY'VE RELEASED IT INTO MAR GOMEZ AND MARTY GOMEZ HAS RELEASED, BUT NO ONE'S SURE EXACTLY WHO'S TAKING IT.
WE KNOW THE US IS PROBABLY TAKING SOME, BUT MEXICO'S PROBABLY TAKING SOME IN TAMM LIPPA AS WELL.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE NEED OUR WATER IN THE RESERVOIRS THAT ARE GOVERNED BY THE 1944 TREATY MORE THAN ANYTHING, BUT WE'RE NOT GETTING IT.
AND AGAIN, HOPE IS NOT A SOLUTION.
SO THERE'S THE SUGAR MILL CASUALTY.
UM, THERE WAS SOME POLITICAL BLAME PUT ON MEXICO.
BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THESE SLIDES THAT I HAVE SHOWN YOU, IF THERE AIN'T WATER, THERE AIN'T WATER, RIGHT? AND SO WE GOTTA LOOK AT SOMETHING.
I LIKE TO CALL THE FIVE ASIANS.
I WENT TO A, A BIG MEETING THAT HAD A LOT OF ELECTED OFFICIALS AND OTHERS UH, OVER IN PHA.
I THINK IT WAS IN FAR BACK IN 2024.
I WISH I HAD SOME CANDY, BUT I DON'T.
WHAT ARE THE FIVE ASIANS? LET'S SEE IF Y'ALL CAN ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS AND RAISE A HAND AND SHOUT OUT THE ANSWER.
OR IF WE NEED A MIC, WE'LL GET THE MIC OVER TO YOU.
SO WHAT'S ONE OF THE FIVE ASIANS OF WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND WATER IS LIFE ONE IS REALLY OBVIOUS, BUT THE OTHER ONES SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD TOO.
I KNOW YOU'RE GONNA GET SOME OF THESE.
SO THE ASIAN MEANS THE WORD ENDS IN ASIAN.
CONSERVATION FROM DRAINAGE CEILING TO HOME BUSINESS WATER USE.
[01:15:01]
ONE.RECENT ARTICLE, UH, SHOWED JUAN CHEWY HINOJOSA, UM, OVER IN HIDALGO COUNTY, FINDING SOME SOLUTIONS TO SPEND OVER A HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS TO DO SEALING OF CANALS AND IMPROVING OF REDUCTION EVAPORATION.
WHAT ARE THEY BACK HERE? DIVERSIFICATION.
SO I'M GONNA CALL THAT PART OF THE FIVE ASIANS.
'CAUSE THE FIVE ASIANS ARE DIVERSIFICATION.
UM, SO LET'S PUT THAT ON HOLD AND LET'S TALK ABOUT THE OTHER ASIANS THAT ACTUALLY COMBINE TO CREATE DIVERSIFICATION.
SOMEBODY ELSE OR THE SAME PERSON WHO MAY HAVE AN IDEA OF ANOTHER ASIAN MITIGATION MITIGATION.
THAT'S WHAT THE FIVE ASIANS ARE KIND OF IN ON THE WHOLE IS MITIGATION.
YOU ARE AWESOME BECAUSE YOU GOT 'EM IN ORDER.
SO HAVE EXTRA COOKIES AND CANDIES.
WE'VE SEEN ANOTHER PROLIFERATION, ANOTHER ASIAN OF CAR WASHES.
BOY, I HOPE THEY'RE RECYCLING THAT WATER.
RECLAIMING IT BECAUSE IF THEY'RE NOT, IT'S JUST GOING WHERE INTO THE DRAINS AND INTO THE GULF.
UM, IF YOU'VE HEARD OF COMMISSIONER DAVID IN UH, DAVID FUENTES OF UH, IAGO COUNTY, THEY'RE WORKING ON A PROJECT WITH THE DELTA DISTRICT WHERE THEY'RE DOING POTABLE WATER RECLAMATION AND THEY FINALLY GOT FUNDED TO DO MORE OF IT.
NOW RECLAMATION DOESN'T MEAN IT HAS TO BE POTABLE FOR HOME IRRIGATION.
YOU JUST NEED WATER GOOD ENOUGH TO, TO WATER YOUR PLANTS.
MY WATER BILL FOR MY CITY WATER WAS WHATEVER I USED FOR CITY WATER.
BUT MY IRRIGATION WATER WAS LIKE UNLIMITED 'CAUSE THEY HAD ALL THE PIPES IN PLACE FOR ALL THE NEW SUBDIVISIONS.
SO RECLAMATION, OKAY, WHAT'S THE THIRD ONE? DESALINATION.
TAKE TAKE TAKE A THIS BROWNIE'S A GOOD MAN.
YOU GUYS ARE GETTING AN ORDER TOO, WHICH IS PRETTY AMAZING.
THAT'S REALLY GOOD 'CAUSE I HAVE DIFFERENT ORDERS.
SO PURIFY THE BRACKISH GROUNDWATER AND THE SALT WATER.
SALT WATER COULD BE REALLY EXPENSIVE THOUGH, BUT IT'S WORTH A TRY.
I THINK THERE'S SOME PROJECTS THAT MAY BE GETTING GOING THAT WAY, BUT I KNOW THAT THE BRACKISH GROUNDWATER IS, IS CERTAINLY AN OPTION.
WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL DOING THAT.
I SEE I HAVE IT THIRD 'CAUSE THERE'S OTHER FIRST ONES ARE REALLY, I THINK, YOU KNOW, LOWER HANGING FRUIT THAN DESAL.
BUT DESAL IS PART OF THE SOLUTION, PART OF THE DIVERSIFICATION BY THE WAY.
THE FIFTH ONE MAY BE HARD TO GET, BUT THE FOURTH ONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET IRRIGATION.
WINTER WINNER CHICKEN CONDITION, CHICKEN DINNER CONDITION, UH,
WHY FLOOD THE FIELD WHEN THERE'S A SMARTER WAY? AND BACK IN THE DAY THEY USED TO FLOOD THE FIELD FOR CITRUS.
WHERE'S THAT GOING NOW IF YOU FLOOD THE FIELD, WHAT'S HAPPENING TO ALL THAT WATER IN MARCH AND APRIL OPERATES EVAPORATES.
'CAUSE WE'VE HAD THESE REALLY WARM AND HOT YEARS.
IT'S NOT, NOT RETAINED BY THE SOIL.
SO YOU'VE GOTTEN FOUR AND THOSE ARE REALLY KIND OF THE BIG FOUR.
DIVERSIFICATION ASIANS, RIGHT? THERE'S ONE MORE THOUGH.
AND THINK ABOUT WHAT THIS ONE MIGHT BE.
IT'S KIND OF THE UNKNOWNS OR MAYBE KNOWN UNKNOWNS THAT ARE OUT THERE WE HAVEN'T THOUGHT ABOUT REGARDING THESE FOUR.
BUT IT ENDS IN THE LETTERS ASIAN.
IT STARTS WITH AN I SURE NOT HERE.
NO, IT'S NOT IMMIGRATION INNOVATION.
I'M NOT, UH, GOING I'M NOT GOING DOWN THAT RABBIT HOLE.
I THOUGHT I JUST, I THINK HE MAY HAVE SAID IT.
THINK ABOUT THE ARABIAN PENINSULA.
AND I KNOW THEY HAD OIL MONEY THERE.
BUT LOOK AT EMIRATES, ABU DHABI, DUBAI.
THEY GOT BEAUTIFUL PLACES WITH GREEN GRASS AND STUFF AND YET THEY'RE FINDING WAYS TO USE WATER 'CAUSE THERE'S NO WATER THERE.
I DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT THEY'RE DOING.
THEY HAVE THESE REALLY NEAT RECLAMATION PROJECTS THERE THAT BASICALLY SAY SINGAPORE ISLAND WITH WHAT, 5 MILLION PEOPLE, WHATEVER IT IS, ALL IN A SMALL AREA, IT DOESN'T REALLY GET THE KIND OF RAINFALL THEY NEED ARE FINDING WAYS OF INNOVATING TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN.
AND WE'VE ALSO HEARD OF THINGS LIKE RAIN, RAINWATER, HARVESTING.
WHICH COULD BE AN EXAMPLE OF AN INNOVATION TECHNIQUE, ALTHOUGH THAT'S ALREADY OUT THERE.
BUT THAT'S A WAY OF RECLAMATION.
IT'S ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF RECLAMATION.
SO DON'T FORGET ABOUT THE FIVE ASIANS.
I'VE ACTUALLY DONE INTERVIEWS ON THIS AND I LIKE TO SAY THAT TEXAS CAN TEXANS CAN HAVE TEXAS SOLUTIONS, UH, TO MAKE THIS HAPPEN.
WE DON'T NEED TO RELY ON NECESSARILY MEXICAN WATER.
IF WE FIGURED THIS OUT ON OUR OWN.
[01:20:01]
TO DO IT IF WE KNOW WHERE TO SPEND THEM.SO FLOODING PROTECTION AND DROUGHT PROTECTION IS GOING TO BE KEY.
WATCH WORDS AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THIS CENTURY FOR YOUR GRANDCHILDREN AS THEY GROW UP TO BE MY AGE NOW, FOR EXAMPLE.
SO WE'LL GO THROUGH THIS FAIRLY QUICKLY.
THERE'S BEEN A GREAT CONVERSATION.
SORRY I'M TAKING UP A LOT OF THE TIME, BUT I'D LIKE TO BE INTERACTIVE AND YOU'RE A GREAT GROUP TO DO IT WITH.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE'S OUR SEASONAL FORECAST.
OUR TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS A 43% CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL.
AND ONLY A 24% CHANCE OF BELOW AVERAGE.
SO IF IT WERE A THREE-WAY ELECTION WITH A PLURALITY, THE 43% WINS THE ELECTION AND GETS THE SEAT NOT GOOD FOR WHEN WE'RE TALKING ABOUT DRYNESS.
UM, FOR RAINFALL IT'S A 44% CHANCE OF BELOW AVERAGE AND JUST A 23% CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE.
BUT AGAIN, WE COULD HAVE MARCH AGAIN.
I MEAN I WISH I WAS THAT GOOD.
I WOULD BE SITTING ON A YACHT SOMEWHERE TELLING YOU THAT ON MARCH 31ST IT'S GONNA RAIN THE BUCKETS, BUT I CAN'T DO THAT.
YOU SEE THEM RISING AND YOU SEE THE RAINFALL AVERAGE.
THESE ARE THE AVERAGES THAT YOU'RE COMPARING IT TO.
UH, WHEN YOU START LOOKING AT THE 40 PLUS PERCENT CHANCES, YOU'RE GETTING INTO HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
WHEN YOU SEE 50 PLUS PERCENT CHANCES, IT'S LIKE AN ELECTION.
YOU KNOW, SOMEONE WINS THESE DAYS WITH 52%.
SO IF WE HAVE 52% ON THE PROBABILITY MAP, WHICH WE DON'T YET, UM, BUT IF WE DID, THAT WOULD BE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE'RE GOING INTO, UM, SOLIDLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD.
UM, INTO SPRING, MARCH, APRIL AND MAY.
IT'S PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR TEMPERATURES.
YOU SEE THAT ABOVE AREA, THAT'S 50 PLUS PERCENT ACROSS EL PASO OVER TO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
IT'S NOT REALLY A GOOD SIGN FOR RESERVOIRS.
MORE EVAPORATION OUT THERE, WHICH IS NOT GOOD.
AND UH, RAINFALL CHANCES THEY GO TO EQUAL CHANCES.
THERE'S A NUMBER OF REASONS FOR THAT.
UH, SOME TRANSITION AND THINGS LIKE THE EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION, THERE'S SOME OTHER UNCERTAINTY AND MAYBE THEY'RE LOOKING BACK AT LAST MARCH AND APRIL AND SAYING, HMM, WE WANNA BE CAREFUL IF WE SAY BELOW AVERAGE AND THEY GET HAMMERED WITH RAIN AGAIN.
SO IT'S A 33, 33 33 DEAL ON THAT.
AND THERE'S YOUR AVERAGES SHOWN.
BUT AGAIN, PROBABLY OF TEMPERATURE'S THE SAME DEAL AS IT WAS FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL AND NOW APRIL THROUGH JUNE, GETTING INTO EARLY SUMMER.
AND NOTICE SOMETHING HERE ABOUT PRECIPITATION.
WE'RE STILL IN EQUAL CHANCES AND WE DO GET MORE PRECIPITATION ON AVERAGE, LOWER RIGHT THERE, UH, DURING THIS PERIOD.
LOOK AT THAT ABOVE AVERAGE THERE.
INTERESTING HURRICANE SEASON TEASER.
I WANNA ALERT YOU TO, AS WE GET TO THE BEGINNING OF THE SEASON, WHICH ALWAYS IS A WILD CARD BY THE WAY.
BUT NOW WE'VE GONE TO 46% CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN HARLINGEN AND THAT MEANS A 20% CHANCE OF BELOW.
SO WE'VE ACTUALLY LOWERED THE CHANCE OF BELOW AND INCREASED THE CONFIDENCE OF IT BEING, UH, PRETTY TOASTY AGAIN COMPARED TO THE 30 YEAR AVERAGE BY THE WAY.
AND IT'S THE 30 YEAR AVERAGE FROM 1991 TO 2020, WHICH IS ACTUALLY THE HIGHEST 30 YEAR AVERAGE ON RECORD.
SO I SHOW THOSE DATA POINTS THAT SHOW 1895.
THAT'S THE FULL PERIOD OF RECORD, WHICH IS WHY I ASK PEOPLE 40, 50, 60 YEARS AGO, HOW DID IT FEEL HERE? THE LAST 30 YEARS WERE DOMINATED IN SOME WAYS BY THE 10 YEARS FROM 2011 TO 2020, WHICH WERE BY FAR THE MOONSHOTS OF THE HOTTEST ON RECORD HERE IN THE VALLEY.
AND I'LL GIVE YOU AN INTERESTING STAT IN A MINUTE ON THAT.
SO HERE'S SUMMER, AND THIS IS TROUBLESOME TOO.
WE'RE STILL SITTING ON THAT 47% CHANCE NOW.
WE'VE GONE UP AGAIN,
SO INCREASING CONFIDENCE, UH, EQUAL CHANCES, UH, FOR THE RAINFALL.
BUT NOTICE THE EAST COAST AGAIN IN THE ABOVE.
AGAIN, THIS IS KIND OF A HURRICANE SEASON TEASER AND UH, WE'LL GET INTO THAT IN A MINUTE.
SO LET'S BOTTOM LINE THE OUTLOOK IN RELATION TO THE FOUR BIGS.
ANOTHER TOP 10 WARMEST DEER IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
MAN, IT WOULD BE REALLY SCARY IF 2026 WERE HOTTER THAN 20, 23, 24 AND 25.
'CAUSE THOSE YEARS WERE CLOSE TO BEING OFF THE CHARTS.
UM, BUT WE SAW THAT 2025 WASN'T TOO FAR AWAY FROM 24, WHICH WASN'T TOO FAR AWAY FROM 23.
SO I DON'T KNOW, I COULD SAY THIS JANUARY CURRENTLY RANKS IN THE TOP FIVE EVEN THOUGH WE'VE HAD SOME COOLEST DAYS HERE.
THOSE COOLEST DAYS WERE JUST A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
BUT THE FIRST NINE WEREN'T, THEY WERE WAY UP THERE, IT FELT LIKE WHAT, OCTOBER.
IN EARLY JANUARY, I WAS AT THE BEACH IN THE SURF.
LIKE REALLY? I'M ALMOST NEVER INTO SURF IN JANUARY DOWN HERE.
BUT I WAS, AND I'M NOT FROM THE NORTH ANYMORE.
SO I'M ACCLIMATED TO THE COLD.
YOU GET ME DOWN TO 55 DEGREES, I'M IN A WHEATER COAT.
YOU KNOW,
BUT ANYWAY, UH, WATER SHORTAGES WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE OR EXACERBATE, REMEMBER, WITHOUT MOVEMENT ON THE FIVE OCEANS.
THERE IS MOVEMENT, WHICH IS GREAT.
WE NEED A LOT MORE MOVEMENT THERE.
BUT WILL IT FLOOD AGAIN? THERE'S MY STATEMENT.
TEXAS IS A STATE OF PERPETUAL DROUGHT BROKEN BY THE OCCASIONAL DEVASTATING FLOOD.
BY THE WAY, IT'S NOT MY STATEMENT, IT'S A HUNDRED YEARS OLD BY A WEATHER PERSON.
I DON'T WANNA SAY METEOROLOGIST, I'M NOT SURE HE WAS.
BUT HE MADE THAT IN THE 1920S SAYING
[01:25:01]
THIS IS HOW THE STATE OF TEXAS IS.AND IT'S REALLY BEEN RIGHT IN THE VALLEY FOR THE LAST, UH, DECADE.
UM, IF WE DO FLOOD THOUGH, THE HIGHER CHANCES ARE TYPICALLY JUNE, AUGUST, AND SEPTEMBER.
THAT DOESN'T MEAN MARCH, APRIL AND MAY OUT OF THE WOODS.
IT JUST MEANS THAT THE HIGHER CHANCES ARE THEN, OH, AND BY THE WAY, JULY IS NEVER OUT OF THE WOODS EITHER, AS WE'VE SEEN HISTORICALLY.
SO HERE'S OUR HURRICANE SEASON TEASER.
EL NINO MAY BE RETURNING BY THE PEAK OF THE SEASON.
A SO STANDS FOR AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER.
THAT'S THE PEAK OF THE SEASON.
THE RED BAR MEANS A PROBABILITY OF EL NINO OVER 60%, WHICH MEANS IT'S BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE GO INTO EL NINO.
ANYBODY KNOW WHAT EL NINO? FORGET ABOUT THE WHAT IT IS, BUT JUST WHAT DOES EL NINO TYPICALLY MEAN FOR THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON? ANYBODY WANNA SAY BIGGER, MORE ACTIVE, JUST ACTIVE, ACTIVE PEOPLE.
HOW MANY PEOPLE SAY ABOUT THE SAME AS AVERAGE? AVERAGE BY THE WAY, IS 14 NAMES, SEVEN HURRICANES.
ANYONE SAY AVERAGE? ANYONE THINK BELOW AVERAGE? ANYBODY? ANYBODY ABOVE AVERAGE? I SEE EVERYBODY'S SAYING ABOVE AVERAGE IS EL NINO.
WELL, BELIEVE IT OR NOT, IT'S NOT, IT'S BELOW AVERAGE.
IF WE GET INTO AN EL NINO BY THE PEAK OF THE SEASON, THIS IS THE TYPICAL EL NINO INFLUENCE FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
IT'S THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE CARIBBEAN, THE GULF OF MEXICO, GULF OF GULF OF AMERICA, GULF OF MEXICO.
THAT WHOLE AREA IS UNDER, UM, THE, UH, FEWER HURRICANES AND THE PACIFIC IS MORE.
BUT NOT EVERY EL NINO DOES THAT.
THERE'S OTHER FACTORS THAT CAN PLAY IN.
SO YOU JUST DON'T WRITE AT HOME AND SAY 100% CONFIDENCE.
IT WILL BE A REDUCED HURRICANE SEASON IN 2026.
BUT THE LEAN WILL BE GOING THERE, I SUSPECT.
SO THE FORECAST NUMBER OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE AVERAGING ON THE LOWER END THAN THE HIGHER END.
SO WHEN THE HURRICANES, UH, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, ALONG WITH THE HURRICANE CENTER COMBINED COME WITH THEIR FORECAST, THEY'RE PROBABLY LOOKING AT 10 TO 16, UH, FROM THE MAY FORECAST COMES OUT FOR NAME STORMS, THEN HURRICANES WOULD BE LIKE FOUR TO SEVEN WITH A TOP NUMBER BEING, UH, THE AVERAGE AND THE, THE AVERAGE FOR THE SEASON BEING BELOW BASED ON THE EL NINO COMING IN.
THAT'S WHAT I THINK IS GONNA HAPPEN WHEN WE GET TO THE MAY FORECAST.
BUT THERE'S STILL FOUR MONTHS TO FIGURE ALL THIS OUT.
NOW HERE'S WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING.
THIS IS THE AUGUST, SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER SEASONAL FORECAST.
AND I DO THINK THAT THEY'RE BUILDING IN THIS LATEST EL NINO FORECAST, WHICH IS NOW MORE ROBUST ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF A LA NINA THAT IS WEAK SHIFTING OVER TO EL NINO IN JUST SIX MONTHS.
AND YOU CAN SEE HERE YOU HAVE A 55% PROBABILITY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR, AT LEAST PART OF THAT.
AND THE AVERAGE, AGAIN, 1991 TO 2020, WHICH IS OUR HIGHEST 30 YEAR AVERAGE ON RECORD.
IT'S ACTUALLY BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE VALLEY.
AND UH, THE HIGHEST BELOW AVERAGE IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
IF THAT WERE TO VERIFY, THAT'S A, THAT'S A REAL YIKES WHEN IT COMES TO WATER RESOURCE RESERVOIRS AND ALL THAT BIG PROBLEM.
SO WE'LL SEE WHERE THE TREND GOES.
BUT EL NINO SUMMERS HERE TYPICALLY ARE HOT AND DRY.
2009 WAS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF THAT.
AND WE WERE OFF THE CHARTS HOT FOR JULY AND AUGUST THAT YEAR AND IT DIDN'T RAIN MUCH EITHER.
SO WITH THAT, THE LEAN ON THIS ONE WOULD BE WHERE, WHERE WOULD THE LEAN BE? IF THERE'S A LIEN FOR HURRICANES IN THE 2026 SEASON, ESPECIALLY THE PEAK, WHICH IS AUGUST THROUGH EARLY OCTOBER, WOULD IT BE GULF OF GULF? WOULD IT BE CARIBBEAN? WOULD IT BE ATLANTIC? WOULD IT BE EAST COAST? WHERE WOULD IT BE FROM THE ATLANTIC BASIN, WHICH IS THE GULF, CARIBBEAN AND EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC.
ANYONE THINK THE LEAN IS WEST? ANYONE THINK THERE'S A WESTERN LEAN BASED ON THAT FORECAST? YOU SEE LOTS OF REDS AND YELLOWS ON THAT, RIGHT? THAT MEANS BELOW AND HOT BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AND HOT TEMPERATURES.
DOES THAT SIGNIFY A WESTERN LEAN MEANING OUR AREA? ANYONE SAY YES? WHY? WELL, WE, WE GET ALL THE HOT, YOU KNOW, ALL THE EVAPORATION COMING INTO OUR AREA AND THE WIND.
WHAT DOES EVAPORATION MEAN FOLKS? MORE IS WATER IN THE AIR.
LESS WATER, LESS WATER IN THE AIR ACTUALLY CONDENSATION.
THE EVAPORATION DOES HAPPEN, RIGHT? BUT IT CONDENSES IN HUMIDITY.
IF YOUR ATMOSPHERE IS DRY, WHAT DOES THE EVAPORATION DO? POOF.
IF YOU GO POOF, WHERE'S THE HURRICANE GONNA COME FROM? SO THE ANSWER IS THE OPPOSITE, SIR.
ACTUALLY LEAN IS FARTHER EAST.
WHAT HAPPENED IN THE 2025 SEASON? WHERE WERE THE HURRICANES? ANYBODY KNOW? WELL, THE ANSWER IS WHERE WERE THE HURRICANES
[01:30:01]
ONE.CHANTAL AND BARRY, MY NAMESAKE, WHICH MAY BE RETIRED BY THE WAY, UM, WE'LL SEE BECAUSE OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
BUT BARRY HIT, UH, AS A VERY WEAK ONE DAY EVENT IN NEAR TOWN PICO.
AND THEN, UM, MELISSA WAS IN JAMAICA AND WE HAD CHANTAL IN NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA.
UM, OUR TOTAL DOLLAR VALUE DAMAGE I THINK WAS IN THE HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS.
WE DIDN'T EVEN GET TO A BILLION FROM THE HURRICANES THIS YEAR.
THEY WERE ALL IN THE ATLANTIC.
UH, MELISSA HIT JAMAICA, THAT WAS OUR BIG ONE, BUT THERE WERE SOME BIG ONES OUT THERE, SOME REAL SCARY ONES OUT THERE IN THE OCEAN.
AND FOUR OF THEM WERE RAPID INTENSIFIERS.
AND THAT'S WHAT WE ALWAYS GET SCARED BY.
I WAS AT A TALK THIS MORNING THAT SHOWED, UM, HOW THE RED CROSS ACTS ON HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS AND THEY WERE STILL USING H MINUS ONE 20 H MINUS ONE 20.
DO YOU THINK WE'RE GONNA HAVE FIVE DAYS IN MANY HURRICANE CASES TO PREPARE DOWN HERE? I BETTER HEAR A LOT OF NOS.
WE'RE GONNA HEAR A LOT OF NOS.
NOT EVERY STORM IS GONNA BE HURRICANE ALLEN OR HURRICANE BAH.
SO AGAIN, PEAK SEASON LONG LEAD OUTLOOKS IS JUST HOT AND DRY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
COULD IT BE FLORIDA? COULD IT BE THE CAROLINAS? THOSE EARLIER MAPS SHOW A HINT OF THAT.
THIS ONE, IT COULD BE THE ATLANTIC.
THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE COULDN'T GET ONE SNEAKING THROUGH THE CRACKS.
HURRICANE HARVEY SNUCK THROUGH THE CRACKS IN 2017.
DIDN'T GET US, BUT BOY TEXAS FELT IT.
WE ALWAYS PREPARE AS IF THIS IS THE YEAR THAT WE GET THE ONE, BUT THE OPPORTUNITY MAY ONLY BE FOR THE ONE VERSUS THE THREE OR FOUR.
LIKE WE SAW IN 2024, WE HAD THREE NEARBY.
AND WITH THAT, THERE'S MY INFORMATION FOR ME AND I WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SLIDE HERE WITH OUR OFFICE INFORMATION.
SO IF YOU NEED TO TAKE A SCREENSHOT OF THAT TO CONTACT ME DIRECTLY, THAT'S MY EMAIL.
I'M STILL HERE A WHILE LONGER, BUT I AM SEEING THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE RETIREMENT TUNNEL.
UH, MAY NOT LOOK IT, BUT YEAH, THAT PICTURE, I THINK I HAVE MORE, UH, LESS GRAY HAIR I DO NOW
AND THEN THERE'S OUR OFFICE CONTACT INFORMATION, THERE'S OUR TEAM ON THE RIGHT AND YOU CAN REACH US, UH, FOR ANY REQUEST THAT YOU MAY HAVE FOR WEATHER SUPPORT, UH, BY GOING TO THAT EMAIL ADDRESS.
AND YOU CAN FIND US ON SOCIAL MEDIA AT N WS BROWNSVILLE, ALTHOUGH WE DO SERVE THE WHOLE VALLEY.
SO WITH THAT, I THANK YOU ALL FOR THE ABILITY TO SPEAK TO YOU AND HOPE YOU GOT A LOT OUT OF IT AND I'LL STICK AROUND.
WELL, I WAS GONNA TELL YOU, BARRY, NOWADAYS WE'RE IN A SOCIAL MEDIA ENVIRONMENT AND, AND TO ADD TO WHAT THE MAYOR WAS SAYING, ANYTIME THAT WE'RE ALERTED THAT WE MAY GET SOME RAIN PEOPLE, UNDERSTANDABLY THEY'RE EXPECTING THE WORST.
I MEAN, WHAT HAPPENED IN MARCH? I THINK HARINGTON WAS EXPECTING TWO INCHES OF RAIN.
AND SO NOW PEOPLE ARE SCARED AND, AND YOU KNOW, WE, WE TRY TO TREAT EVERY EVENT AS IF IT'S GONNA BE SOMETHING MAJOR.
WE HAVE TO, I MEAN, EVERY TIME THAT WE GET SOMETHING, WE'RE ALL TALKING AND WE'RE TRYING TO PREPARE AND IT ENDS UP BEING A FALSE ALARM.
BUT WE'RE THAT, THAT'S SOMETHING NOW HAS BECOME NORMALIZED IN THAT WE'RE WE'RE EXPECTING THE WORST WITH EVERY EVENT.
IS THAT GONNA BE SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE? SO RECENCY BIAS IS A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD.
UM, I THINK THE EVENTS OF MARCH ARE IN A WAY A GOOD IDEA OF RECENCY BIAS BECAUSE OF THE PERPETUAL DROUGHT BROKEN BY THE OCCASIONAL DEVASTATING FLOOD.
WE'VE BEEN SEEING THIS AND THE LOCAL LEADERSHIP AND STATE LEADERSHIP REALIZE THAT WE NEED TO FUND THE TWO PRONGS OF WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AND FLOOD MITIGATION, RIGHT? AS LONG AS WE KEEP OUR EYE ON THOSE BALLS AT THE SAME TIME, YOU KNOW, THEY SAY WALK AND CHEW GUM AT THE SAME TIME.
DO THAT WE'LL BE OKAY AS WE MOVE FORWARD.
BUT WE CAN'T FORGET ABOUT FLOODING.
IF WE'RE IN DROUGHT FOR TWO YEARS IN A ROW, DON'T SEE ANYTHING, WE CAN'T FORGET ABOUT HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS JUST BECAUSE 2025 WAS DEAD.
THERE STILL COULD BE A HURRICANE SOME YEAR THERE'S GONNA BE ANOTHER ONE.
AND THOSE ARE THE TWO OF THE FOUR BIGS, RIGHT? THE WINDSTORM AND THE, UH, FLOODING RAIN.
SO WE DON'T WANNA FORGET ABOUT WINDSTORM RESILIENCE EITHER.
WE SAW WHAT HAPPENED IN 2023 AND EVEN IN 2025 AND A COUPLE OF LOCAL AREAS.
THAT'S WHY I CALL IT THE FOUR BIGS.
WE NEED TO KEEP TRACK OF ALL OF THOSE AND NOT LET RECENCY BIAS CLOUD OUR JUDGMENT.
BECAUSE WHAT DOES RECENCY BIAS DO? IT PUTS YOU IN A STOVE PIPE OR A TUNNEL AND YOU, AND THAT'S HUMAN NATURE.
BUT AS PEOPLE WHO ARE INVOLVED WITH COMMUNITY, WITH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, WITH PREPAREDNESS, YOU NEED TO ALWAYS HAVE YOUR EYES OPEN ON THE PERIPHERY.
SOME PEOPLE HAVE A TERM, THEY SAY STAY IN YOUR LANE, RIGHT? STAY IN YOUR LANE WHILE THESE STOVEPIPES AND TUNNELS BASED ON THE FLOODING RAIN.
[01:35:01]
BUT I ALWAYS TO SAY, WELL, OKAY, STAY IN YOUR LANE OF EXPERTISE BUT UNDERSTAND HOW THE TRAFFIC MOVES ON THE OTHER LANES ON THE HIGHWAY COMING AND GOING.THAT WAY YOU HAVE A PERIPHERY AND YOU KNOW THAT THINGS COULD CHANGE AND HAPPEN.
AND THAT'S ALSO PART OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING, RIGHT? BE READY FOR THE REASONABLE WORST CASE WITH THE MARCH EVENT.
OUR REASONABLE WORST CASE TWO AND A HALF DAYS OUT WAS LIKE TWO INCHES OR THREE.
WE DIDN'T EVEN HAVE A NUMBER TO PLAY WITH.
WE HAD TO IMAGINE WHAT IF IT COMES DOWN TO THE VALLEY, UM, WITH A HUNDRED MILE ERROR.
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN THIS SITUATION? AND OUR STAFF IS NOT REALLY TRAINED TO GET THEIR ARMS AROUND IMAGINING SOMETHING THAT'S NOT SHOWING UP IN THE UNCERTAINTY DATA.
EVEN ON THE 5% PROBABILITY IT WAS LIKE FOUR TO FIVE INCHES, MAYBE NOT EVEN THAT MUCH, TWO AND A HALF DAYS OUT.
SO HOW ARE WE GOING TO FORECAST THE BIG ONES COMING WHEN THE UNCERTAINTY IS, YOU KNOW, OR THE CERTAIN, THE CERTAINTY OF NOT GETTING IT IS CLOSE TO 99%.
IF YOU FALSE ALARM ON THAT TOO MANY TIMES, FORGET ABOUT RECENCY BIAS.
YOU JUST BASICALLY TOOK YOUR CREDIBILITY FROM HERE AND TOOK IT TO THE FLOOR.
AND WE'RE NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF NOT BEING TRUSTED.
WE'RE IN THE BUSINESS OF BEING TRUSTED.
'CAUSE WE'RE GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS TOO.
SO IT'S TOUGH 'CAUSE OF HUMAN NATURE, BUT WE DO THE BEST WE CAN.
I MEAN, WE JUST HEARD IT, YOU KNOW, FROM THE MAYOR.
YEAH, BUT WE ARE WORKING ON BUILDING THE SKILLSET, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE WON'T HAVE OTHER BUSTS AS WELL AS SUCCESSES.
AND SOMETIMES THE SUCCESSES GET FORGOTTEN BECAUSE IT'S EASIER TO REMEMBER WHEN THE MAN BITES THE DOG THAN WHEN THE DOG BITES THE MAN.
OKAY? SO KEEP THAT IN MIND AS YOU'RE EDUCATING YOUR COMMUNITIES ON ALL OF THESE THINGS THAT IT'S STILL AN UNCERTAIN SIGN, BUT SCIENCE, BUT WE'RE GETTING BETTER AND BETTER AT IT AND THAT'S WHY WE'RE HERE.
UM, AND GETTING PAID THE WAY WE DO TO HELP IMPROVE THE ABILITY TO FORECAST THESE THINGS FOR DECISION SUPPORT, TO IMPROVE PUBLIC SAFETY, WHICH IS ACTUALLY WHERE WE WERE, UM, RED RE UH, IMAGINED, IF YOU WILL, IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AS A PUBLIC SAFETY AGENCY.
THAT MEANS LIKE HOME SECURITY, LAW ENFORCEMENT, FIREFIGHTING, ALL THAT.
WE'RE IN THERE AND IT'S TRUE THAT'S WHAT WE DO.
BELIEVE ME, WE, WHEN THAT EVENT HAPPENED, IT WAS LIKE THE JAW DROPS AND AND I'M LIKE, OH NO, YOU KNOW, WE KNEW ON THE 26TH IT WAS GETTING CLOSER AND IT WAS LIKE UHOH AND THEN ON THE 27TH IT WAS LIKE FLYING BY THE SEAT OF YOUR PANTS.
AND, AND TOM REMEMBERS AND HIDALGO COUNTY REMEMBERS, THE CITY OF ME COUNTY REMEMBERS.
AND I'M ON THE PHONE AND I'M BASICALLY DOING MULTIPLE BRIEFINGS AND I'M SAYING, OKAY, IT'S HERE GUYS.
YOU KNOW, THIS IS WHERE WE'RE GOING MOVE THOSE VEHICLES EASTBOUND BECAUSE IT'S GOING TO HARLEM AND IT'S GONNA GET REALLY BAD OVER THERE.
AND LUCKILY THEY HAD SOME VEHICLES TO MOVE, BUT AT THAT POINT IT WAS TOO LATE TO GO BACK AND CRY OVER IT.
AND THEN THE AFTER ACTION IS WHEN YOU COME UP AND YOU SAY, OKAY, WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN BETTER? AND UM, WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN BETTER IS THE FACT THAT WE'RE WORKING ON GETTING IT BETTER.
I'LL BE, I'M THE STRAIGHT SHOOTER.
I KNOW THAT WAS A BUSTED FORECAST, BUT THE HONEST TRUTH IS THAT WE WERE GETTING CLOSER, UH, THAN WE WERE SAY 10, 20 YEARS AGO.
BUT THAT'S NOT GOOD ENOUGH YET.
WE NEED TO GET GOOD ENOUGH AND WE'RE WORKING ON IT.
SO I HOPE EVERYONE IS, UM, PATIENT AND STILL TRUSTWORTHY OF US.
I MEAN, OBVIOUSLY IF WE SEE SOMETHING AMONG OUR STAFF THAT THEY'RE MISSING SOMETHING THEY SHOULDN'T MISS, WE'LL BE ALL OVER IT.
I'M ON THE MANAGEMENT TEAM, WE LOOK AT THAT BECAUSE THAT COULD BE A BIGGER DEAL.
BUT THAT WASN'T THE CASE HERE.
WE, WE TURNED IT AROUND AS BEST AS WE COULD STARTING ON MARCH 26TH.
BUT WE DIDN'T HAVE THE DATA WE NEEDED ON MARCH 25TH, TO BE HONEST, TO BE ABLE TO SAY WE'RE GETTING HIGHLY CONFIDENT IN A HISTORIC AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.
I MEAN YOU GOTTA BE REAL CAREFUL WITH THAT KIND OF STUFF.
UH, THE BEST EXAMPLE OF THAT THAT I'VE SEEN THAT REALLY WORKED WONDERS WAS HARVEY.
OKAY, HARVEY'S FORECAST WAS EXCELLENT, BUT YET I DO STILL HEAR AS THE HURRICANE CENTER DOES, ITS USUAL CLOCK TURNING.
WHAT I MEAN BY CLOCK TURNING IS THEY'RE NOT GONNA WINDSHIELD WIPE A FORECAST ON A TRACK WHEN IT'S NOTHING THERE WHEN THE STORM IS DEGENERATED.
SO THE INITIAL FORECAST, YOU PROBABLY HEARD THIS THREE DAYS OUT, THREE AND A HALF DAYS OUT, ONE OF 'EM WAS COMING RIGHT HERE AS A TROPICAL STORM, BUT IT FREAKED PEOPLE OUT LIKE UHOH, THAT'S GONNA BE OURS.
I KEEP HEARING THAT AND I KEEP TELLING PEOPLE, WELL THE HURRICANE CENTER DOES NOT WINDSHIELD WIPE.
SO THEY WERE SLOWLY MOVING IT CLOSER TO THE ULTIMATE LOCATION, WHICH THEY NAILED BY THE WAY OF ROCKPORT.
BUT IT HAD TO GO THROUGH US TO GET TO THEM IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST ACCURACY.
BUT TWO DAYS OUT ON AUGUST 23RD, I THINK IS THE DATE, 25TH, UM, THE FORECAST WAS ONLY 10 MILES OFF FROM WHERE IT WENT EAST TO SOUTH PADRE.
THAT'S HOW GOOD THE FORECAST WAS.
AND WHAT DID THAT ALLOW? THAT ALLOWED THE COASTAL BEND TO BE PREPARED 48 TO 60 HOURS OUT WITHOUT HAVING THE LUXURY OF ONE 20.
THEY DIDN'T HAVE THAT, BUT THEY HAD 48
[01:40:01]
TO 64 RAPID INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL.AT THAT POINT IT WAS ONLY FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM, BUT THEY HAD IT IN THE WORDING THAT THIS COULD BE STRONGER AND COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.
SO IT MAY BE A HURRICANE LANDFALL TWO DAYS OUT.
AND THEN WITHIN ONE DAY IT WAS LIKE, OH NO, IT'S GONNA BE UH, AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE.
SO THEY HAD SOME WINDOW THERE TO WORK WITH.
BUT THE RAINFALL FORECAST, THERE WAS WORDING THAT SAID UNPRECEDENTED HISTORIC RAINFALL, CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IN HOUSTON.
GALVESTON, UH, I THINK THAT CAME OUT ON AUGUST 25TH, TWO DAYS BEFORE WHAT HAPPENED HAPPENED IN THE HOUSTON GALVESTON AREA.
UM, WHY DID THAT MATTER? WELL, THE MAYOR IN VERY GOOD INFINITE WISDOM, DECIDED NOT TO EVACUATE THE CITY OF HOUSTON.
AND SOME PEOPLE SAID, WHY NOT? THEY SHOULD HAVE ALL GOTTEN OUT.
DOES ANYBODY REMEMBER HURRICANE RITA IN 2005? WHAT HAPPENED WITH HURRICANE RITA HOUSTON, GALVESTON? WHAT HAPPENED ON I 45? HOW MANY PEOPLE DIED ON I 45 10? NOW IMAGINE IF PEOPLE HAVE A RITA REACTION TO HARVEY AND THE MAYOR AND OTHERS SAY, GET OUT, GET OUT.
NOW, EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST IS FOR A TROPICAL STORM WITH FLOODING RAIN, NOT WIND, AND NOT A LOT OF STORM SURGE EITHER, THE ANSWER WAS DON'T LEAVE.
BECAUSE IF YOU CLOG THE HIGHWAYS AND YOU GET 50 INCHES OF RAINFALL, DID YOU SEE HOW MUCH WATER? I MEAN WE'RE TALKING A RAINFALL EVENT THAT'S NOT EVEN IN THE ATLAS.
SO LIKE A ONE IN 1000 PLUS EVENT, WHICH MEANS THAT MINIMUM YOU GOT THREE TO FOUR FEET OF WATER IN A LOT OF AREAS.
IMAGINE HAVING THE HOUSTON TRAFFIC CAUGHT ON THAT.
HOW MANY PEOPLE WOULD SURVIVE IT? CERTAINLY NOT ONLY 36 DEAD OR WHATEVER IT WAS, YOU KNOW, WHERE PEOPLE DIED UNFORTUNATELY, BUT A LOT FEWER THAN A THOUSAND.
THOSE ARE THE MOVES THAT WE WANNA SEE MADE BY OFFICIALS BASED ON THE FORECAST THAT WE'RE ISSUING.
WHAT ARE THE FOUR BIGS? ARE WE FOCUSING ON IN HURRICANES? WHAT ARE THE BIG FOUR? ARE WE FOCUSING ON SURGE? YES.
ARE WE FOCUSING ON RAINFALL, FLOODING IN AN URBAN AREA? FIND HIGHER GROUND.
GET TO A PLACE YOU CAN GET TO IN THE CITY.
IT'S HIGHER GROUND IF YOU CAN GET OUT SOONER, DO IT, BUT DON'T CAUSE A A MANDATORY EVACUATION.
LIKE IN 2005, IF IT'S WINDSTORM, WE'RE LOOKING AT CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE WINDS OF A PLACE LIKE HOUSTON, GALVESTON, THAT'S AN UHOH.
THAT'S KIND OF A A SOME OF ALL FEARS EVENT.
'CAUSE NOW YOU ARE LOOKING AT A LOT OF IMPACT ON PEOPLE THAT COULD KILL.
UH, WE, WE HOPE THAT NEVER HAPPENS, BUT WE HAVE TO BE READY FOR IT.
SO, UM, THAT'S WHAT WE'RE HERE TO DO.
TRY TO PROVIDE THAT SUPPORT AND FOCUS ON THE, THE WEATHER EVENTS AND WHAT THEY'RE GONNA MAKE FOR IMPACT SO THAT PEOPLE CAN MAKE A GOOD DECISION TO GET PEOPLE TO SAFETY.
WITH THAT, I'LL PASS MY MIC BACK.
ANY, ANYBODY HAVE ANY COMMENTS THEY'D LIKE TO MAKE? I KNOW WE HAVE T STOCK COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT, UH, IRRIGATION DISTRICT, DRAINAGE DISTRICTS, CITY OF HARLINGEN, LAIA SANTO COMMISSIONERS.
IF I REMEMBER CORRECTLY, YOU SAID 10 YEAR FORECAST.
THIS IS GONNA STAY WITHIN THE 10 YEAR.
THIS, THIS, THIS DRYNESS, DRYNESS AND WEATHER EVENTS.
UH, YOU DON'T FORESEE ANYTHING MAJORLY CHANGING IN 10 YEARS.
SO NOAH HAS DONE STUDIES, UM, NOT, NOT THIS YEAR OF COURSE, BUT IN RECENT YEARS ON LOOKING DOWN THE PIKE AT, UH, HOW GLOBAL WARMING WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN US, THE GREAT PLAINS MIDWEST, EAST COAST, AND THE AREAS OF BETTER RAINFALL WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE FLOODING MORE FREQUENTLY WITH WARMING ARE LIKE THE OHIO VALLEY, THE NORTHEAST, UM, UH, PART OF THE LOWER MIDWEST, YOU KNOW, THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, THE SOUTHWEST US WHICH ACTUALLY INCLUDED TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OUT TO THE WEST.
SO THE DRIER SIDE OF THINGS AS IT GETS WARMER.
AND SO, UM, IT'S NOT A GOOD SCENE.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT OUR POPULATION INCREASING ON BOTH SIDES OF OUR BORDER HERE, THAT'S WHERE THE FIVE ASIANS COME IN.
SO THE ANSWER IS YES, UH, 10, 20, 30 YEARS, THAT IS THE TREND.
THAT DOES NOT MEAN EVERY YEAR WILL BE NUMBER ONE, TWO, OR THREE.
I GUARANTEE YOU THERE'LL BE SOME YEARS AT RANK IN THE TOP 12 AND TOP 15.
BUT HERE'S A STAT THAT YOU ALL MAY NOT KNOW.
CITY OF BROWNSVILLE, WE'VE BEEN KEEPING RECORDS HERE SINCE 1878 AND THE TOP 10 WARMEST YEARS OF ALL OCCURRED SINCE 2011 IN THE LAST THREE YEARS OF THE TOP THREE ON RECORD GOING BACK TO 1878.
AND WE DO LOOK AT SOME OF THE DATA WE USE AND IT DOES MAKE ME THINK ABOUT IT A LITTLE BIT.
SO I ALWAYS COMPARE WITH OTHER LOCATIONS.
UM, MACALLAN IS NOW, I THINK NINE OF THE LAST 10, NINE OF THE TOP 10 WARMEST YEARS SINCE 2011 AND 10 SINCE 2009.
AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT A, UH, LOCATION LIKE HARLINGEN RIGHT HERE WHERE WE HAVE AN OBSERVATION POINT THAT USES TRADITIONAL MEASUREMENTS OF TEMPERATURE THAT YOU WOULD DO WITH YOUR BACKYARD THERMOMETER THAT'S CALIBRATED, RIGHT? UM, I THINK HARLINGEN IS UP TO SEVEN OF 10 WARMEST YEARS, UH, SINCE 2011.
[01:45:01]
SO RIO GRANDE CITY IS ANOTHER SITE LIKE THAT WHERE THEY USE MORE TRADITIONAL RATHER THAN THE AUTOMATED SENSORS THAT WE USE NOW.AND AGAIN, I HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THE AUTOMATED SENSORS, I'LL BE HONEST, BUT THEY DO CALIBRATE AND WE CALIBRATE THEM TO BE ACCURATE, BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN I TRUST THEM A HUNDRED PERCENT, BUT I TRUST THE BACKYARD OBSERVER WHO'S GETTING CALIBRATED BY US AS WELL, WHICH IS YOUR STANDARD NEAR THE GROUND READINGS.
AND UM, RIO GRANDE CITY I THINK IS SEVEN OR EIGHT OF THE, I THINK IT'S FIVE OR FIVE TO SEVEN OF THE LAST OF 10.
FIVE TO SEVEN OF THE 10 WARMEST YEARS OCCURRED SINCE 2011.
SO IT'S THE ENTIRE VALLEY IS SEEING THE TREND AND THAT'S WHERE THAT, THAT, UH, NATIONAL CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION, THEY FOLD IN ALL THE OBSERVING POINTS TO COME UP WITH THAT CHART THAT YOU SAW.
AND, UM, IT'S UH, A PRETTY SCARY THING AND IT DOESN'T SEEM TO SHOW ANY SIGNS OF SLOWING, WHICH SCARES ME.
UH, IN 2026 WE'RE OFF TO A JACK RABBIT START AND THE FORECAST THERE IMPLIES ANOTHER TOP 10.
AND THAT GOES BACK TO AGAIN, 18 95, 1900 IN BROWNSVILLE'S CASE, 1878 HARLAND BY THE WAY, 1912.
SO I DON'T LOOK AT 30 YEAR AVERAGES AS MUCH AS I LOOK AT PERIODS OF RECORD.
AND THAT'S WHERE THE TRENDS COME IN.
THAT'S WHY THOSE CHARTS MATTER.
SO YES, UH, IT IS, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE.
WE'RE PRETTY CONFIDENT OF THAT.
HOW LONG YOU BEEN DOING THIS? THE WEATHER BUSINESS? 40 YEARS.
THE CLIMATE BUSINESS, THE SOCIAL IMPACTS BUSINESS, ALL THAT.
I KNOW WE HAVE MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC HERE AND WE HAVE A LOT OF GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS FROM THE VARIOUS ENTITIES.
WE WANNA ASSURE EVERYBODY THAT THE PEOPLE YOU SEE HERE ARE NOT STRANGERS.
WE ALL COMMUNICATE REGULARLY AND WE ALL WORK VERY CLOSELY.
AND WE WANNA ASSURE THE GENERAL PUBLIC THAT WHEN WE'RE PREPARING FOR EVENTS, WE'RE ALL COMMUNICATING AND WE'RE ALL HOLDING HANDS.
AND, AND THAT IS SOMETHING THAT IT'S IMPORTANT THAT EVERYBODY BE AWARE OF.
UH, THE COUNTY CITIES, IRRIGATION DISTRICTS DURING DISTRICT, WE'RE ALL WORKING TOGETHER.
WE'RE ALL HELPING EACH OTHER AND WE HAVE EACH OTHER'S BACKS.
AND SO IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE.
I KNOW WE'VE BEEN HERE AN HOUR AND A HALF AND WE TRULY APPRECIATE BARRY BEING HERE.
AND WHAT WE WANNA DO IN THE INTEREST OF TIME, WE'LL SCHEDULE A NEXT EVENT AND SO WE CAN CONTINUE TALKING, CONTINUE THE, THE DIALOGUE.
AND UNLESS ANYBODY HAS ANY QUESTIONS, UH, WE CAN CONCLUDE THIS FIRST MEETING.
AND WE WANNA ASSURE YOU THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING AND OUR EFFORTS TO BE PROACTIVE AND TO WORK TOGETHER.